FNUS74 KLIX 041306 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 806 AM CDT FRI JUN 4 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS...AT 0800 CDT...1004MB LOW PRES SYS IS JUST WEST OF THE SABINE RIVER WHILE A TROUGH IS DUE EAST ACROSS SRN LA AND INTO THE GLFMEX JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC IS LEADING TO MODERATE S-SWRLY FLOW. SFC PRESSURE AT SPILL SITE WAS 1010MB. SQUALL LINE JUST WEST OF ATCHAFALAYA BASIN IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 15 KTS WITH ISO/SCT CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. LARGE AREA OF TSTMS OVER WEST/CENTRAL GULF IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 KTS. THESE TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING LOCAL AREAS DURING THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...SLGT RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER... PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE AND WATERSPOUTS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS WITH 5% CHC LCL SVR TSTMS PSBL... PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 13Z RUC40 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... S 10KT 250FT... S 13KT 500FT... S 14KT 1KFT... S 15KT 2KFT... S 17KT 3KFT... S 17KT 4KFT... S 14KT 5KFT... SW 15KT MAX WIND...231/79KT 40.0KFT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 2000FT...INVERSION 2000FT TO 3500FT. PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE...P.W. 1.50 IN. LI -9.4. SBCAPE 3698 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 253/13KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 041251Z AUTO 16009KT 10SM CLR 27/24 A2986 METAR KGAO 041244Z AUTO 13006KT 27/25 A2983 METAR KHSA 041251Z 15004KT 10SM SCT030 26/24 A2984 METAR KIPN 041300Z AUTO 17013KT 10SM CLR 27/23 A2989 METAR KMYT 041255Z AUTO 19015KT 8SM SCT090 28/25 A2986 METAR KSPR 041255Z AUTO 18023KT 10SM CLR 28/24 A2980 METAR KMDJ 041255Z AUTO 18020KT 10SM SCT014 28/25 A2986 METAR KDLP 041255Z AUTO 16014KT 10SM FEW015 28/24 A2983 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR BKN050...SCT/NUM 1-2SM TSRA BR BKN015CB G25KT. AFT 01Z...VFR CAVOK...LCL MVFR 4-5SM BR TIL 14Z. MARINE AREAS...VFR SCT025 BKN080...AFT 16Z...VFR BKN050...SCT/NUM 1-2SM TSRA BR BKN015CB G35KT. AFT 03Z VFR SCT025...SCT 2SM SHRA/TSRA BKN018CB G25KT. KHUM 041209Z 0412/0512 14006KT P6SM VCTS FEW035CB SCT060 SCT250 TEMPO 0412/0413 VRB10G20KT -TSRA BKN025CB FM041400 17013KT P6SM VCTS BKN028CB BKN250 TEMPO 0414/0416 VRB10G35KT 3SM TSRA FM041600 18011G17KT P6SM -SHRA BKN030 BKN100 OVC250 TEMPO 0416/0418 VRB10G35KT 2SM +TSRA BKN025CB OVC050 FM041800 19013KT P6SM -SHRA BKN035CB OVC250 FM042100 20012KT P6SM SCT035 BKN250 FM050300 19006KT P6SM SCT250 FM051000 18009KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 KHSA 041245Z 0413/0512 17007KT P6SM SCT030 OVC200 FM041500 20013KT P6SM VCSH SCT040CB OVC250 TEMPO 0415/0419 -TSRA BKN035CB OVC060 FM041900 17013KT P6SM VCTS BKN035CB OVC090 TEMPO 0419/0422 TSRA FM042300 19007KT P6SM SCT035 SCT050 BKN250 FM051000 18004KT P6SM BKN250= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SAT...VFR/MVFR SCT/BKN025...SCT/NUM TSRA. MDT S/SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUN...VFR BKN035...SCT TSRA. LGT-MDT SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MON...VFR SCT035...ISOLD TSRA. LGT SW WND. .RADAR...AT 0800 CDT...ALL REMAINS QUIET NEAR THE SPILL SITE BUT LOOK FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS TO RETURN LATER THIS MORNING. LARGE MCS MOVING NE TOWARD SPILL SITE AT ABOUT 35 TO 40 KTS. ON CURRENT TRACK AND SPEED...SHOULD ARRIVE AT SPILL SITE DURING THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.33 FT AT 0742 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.51 FT AT 0859 CDT. WYCM6 1.85 FT AT 0743 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.94 FT AT 1557 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 86.0F. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........75 69 69 69 73 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............83 83 84 83 82 RH..............82 82 77 81 84 20 FT WIND......S 14 S 14 S 15 S 15 S 14 20 FT WIND GUST.30 30 35 35 30 MIX HGT (FT)....2400 2700 2900 2900 2800 MIX HGT (M).....730 820 880 880 850 TRANSPORT WIND..S 24 S 26 S 26 S 25 S 22 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 11 S 12 S 12 S 11 S 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60 60 60 CEILINGS........S50 B40 B25 B30 B35 SEAS............5 5 5 5 5 SEA STATE.......RO RO VRO VRO RO .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........73 68 65 65 69 58 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............83 83 83 83 83 83 RH..............82 82 82 82 82 82 20 FT WIND......S 13 S 10 S 10 S 12 S 14 S 14 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 25 30 30 MIX HGT (FT)....2800 2700 2600 2600 2600 2400 MIX HGT (M).....850 820 790 790 790 730 TRANSPORT WIND..S 22 S 20 S 15 S 15 S 23 S 23 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 10 S 9 S 7 S 7 S 10 S 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............5 5 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......RO CH CH CH RO RO .SATURDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........58 72 71 71 71 68 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............83 84 85 85 85 84 RH..............82 80 77 77 77 80 20 FT WIND......S 13 S 13 S 14 S 13 S 13 S 13 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....2400 2300 2200 2200 2400 2400 MIX HGT (M).....730 700 670 670 730 730 TRANSPORT WIND..S 23 S 22 S 20 S 20 S 21 SW 18 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 10 S 10 S 9 S 9 S 9 SW 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............4 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......RO RO RO RO RO RO $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...TIM OSBORN TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100604.DEEPW.04/LIX