FNUS74 KLIX 041605 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1105 AM CDT FRI JUN 4 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS...AT 1100 CDT...1005MB LOW PRES SYS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING DUE EAST ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AND INTO THE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC IS LEADING TO MODERATE S-SWRLY FLOW. SFC PRESSURE AT SPILL SITE WAS 1012MB. SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH BATON ROUGE AREA BEGINNING TO SLOW UP. MOVING ABOUT 10 MPH NOW. SCT SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. LARGE AREA OF TSTMS OVER WEST/CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 KTS. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON AND OUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...SLGT RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER... PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS WITH 5% CHC LCL SVR TSTMS PSBL... PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 13Z RUC40 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... S 12KT 250FT... S 13KT 500FT... S 14KT 1KFT... S 18KT 2KFT... S 28KT 3KFT... S 25KT 4KFT... S 18KT 5KFT...SSW 14KT MAX WIND...2435/64KT 40.0KFT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 1100FT...ROUGHLY MOIST LAPSE 1100FT TO 6700FT. PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. P.W. 1.52 IN. LI -9.4. SBCAPE 4152 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 244/14KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 041551Z AUTO 18012KT 10SM CLR 29/25 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP115 T02940250 TSNO METAR KGAO 041544Z AUTO 13011KT SCT021 SCT028 30/25 A2985 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW AND W PWINO METAR KHSA 041551Z 14006KT 7SM SCT014 BKN025 28/25 A2987 METAR KIPN 041600Z AUTO 19012KT 10SM CLR 28/25 A2990 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 041555Z AUTO 18022KT 7SM FEW095 29/25 A2987 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 041555Z AUTO 19024KT 8SM FEW019 28/24 A2981 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 041555Z AUTO 18023KT 10SM FEW018 29/25 A2987 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 041555Z AUTO 16016KT 10SM FEW014 FEW080 29/25 A2985 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT025 BKN050...SCT/NUM 1-2SM TSRA BR BKN015CB G25KT. AFT 01Z...VFR CAVOK...LCL MVFR 4-5SM BR TIL 14Z. MARINE AREAS...VFR SCT025 BKN080...AFT 16Z...VFR BKN050...SCT/NUM 1-2SM TSRA BR BKN015CB G35KT. AFT 03Z VFR SCT025...SCT 2SM SHRA/TSRA BKN018CB G25KT. KHUM 041209Z 0412/0512 14006KT P6SM VCTS FEW035CB SCT060 SCT250 TEMPO 0412/0413 VRB10G20KT -TSRA BKN025CB FM041400 17013KT P6SM VCTS BKN028CB BKN250 TEMPO 0414/0416 VRB10G35KT 3SM TSRA FM041600 18011G17KT P6SM -SHRA BKN030 BKN100 OVC250 TEMPO 0416/0418 VRB10G35KT 2SM +TSRA BKN025CB OVC050 FM041800 19013KT P6SM -SHRA BKN035CB OVC250 FM042100 20012KT P6SM SCT035 BKN250 FM050300 19006KT P6SM SCT250 FM051000 18009KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 KHSA 041245Z 0413/0512 17007KT P6SM SCT030 OVC200 FM041500 20013KT P6SM VCSH SCT040CB OVC250 TEMPO 0415/0419 -TSRA BKN035CB OVC060 FM041900 17013KT P6SM VCTS BKN035CB OVC090 TEMPO 0419/0422 TSRA FM042300 19007KT P6SM SCT035 SCT050 BKN250 FM051000 18004KT P6SM BKN250= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SAT...VFR/MVFR SCT/BKN025...SCT/NUM TSRA. MDT S/SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUN...VFR BKN035...SCT TSRA. LGT-MDT SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MON...VFR SCT035...ISOLD TSRA. LGT SW WND. **************************************************************** VALID NEAR SPILL SITE. **************************************************************** .RADAR...AT 1100 CDT...ALL REMAINS QUIET NEAR THE SPILL SITE...BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN IS A LARGE MCS MOVING NE TOWARD SPILL SITE AT ABOUT 35 TO 40 KTS. ON CURRENT TRACK AND SPEED...SHOULD ARRIVE AT SPILL SITE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.52 FT AT 1048 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.51 FT AT 0859 CDT. WYCM6 1.91 FT AT 1049 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.94 FT AT 1557 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 84.0F. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........49 69 69 69 73 73 73 WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............84 84 84 83 83 82 83 RH..............82 77 80 81 84 84 84 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..15 15 15 15 15 14 14 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 35 30 30 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 MIX HGT (KM)....0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.26 26 25 25 25 22 22 TRANS SPD (M/S).12 12 11 11 11 10 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60 60 60 60 60 CEILINGS........60 60 60 60 60 60 60 SEAS............5 6 6 6 6 5 5 SEA STATE.......RO VRO VRO VRO VRO RO RO .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........73 68 65 65 69 58 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............83 83 83 83 83 83 RH..............82 82 82 82 82 82 20 FT WIND......S 13 S 10 S 10 S 12 S 14 S 14 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 25 30 30 MIX HGT (FT)....2800 2700 2600 2600 2600 2400 MIX HGT (M).....850 820 790 790 790 730 TRANSPORT WIND..S 22 S 20 S 15 S 15 S 23 S 23 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 10 S 9 S 7 S 7 S 10 S 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............5 5 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......RO CH CH CH RO RO .SATURDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........58 72 71 71 71 68 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............83 84 85 85 85 84 RH..............82 80 77 77 77 80 20 FT WIND......S 13 S 13 S 14 S 13 S 13 S 13 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....2400 2300 2200 2200 2400 2400 MIX HGT (M).....730 700 670 670 730 730 TRANSPORT WIND..S 23 S 22 S 20 S 20 S 21 SW 18 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 10 S 10 S 9 S 9 S 9 SW 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............4 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......RO RO RO RO RO RO $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...TIM OSBORN TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100604.DEEPW.07/LIX