FNUS74 KLIX 041703 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1203 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS...AT 1200 CDT...1007MB SFC LOW PRES CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE SABINE RIVER. A SECONDARY 1007MB SFC LOW PRES CENTER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH COASTAL LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC IS LEADING TO MODERATE S-SWRLY FLOW. SFC PRESSURE AT SPILL SITE WAS 1012MB. SQUALL LINE HAS NOT PROGRESSED MUCH SINCE LAST HOUR AND IS STILL LOCATED ALONG A LINE ROUGHLY FROM MCCOMB TO BATON ROUGE TO FRANKLIN. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...LARGE AREA OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING INTO A SQUALL LINE AND ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 40 KTS. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT ARE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...SLGT RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER... PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS WITH 5% CHC LCL SVR TSTMS PSBL... PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 13Z RUC40 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... S 13KT 250FT... S 14KT 500FT... S 16KT 1KFT... S 17KT 2KFT... S 28KT 3KFT... S 29KT 4KFT... S 21KT 5KFT... S 19KT MAX WIND...237/53KT 36.7KFT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 1800FT...INVERSION 1800FT TO 5000FT...ROUGHLY MOIST LAPSE 5000FT TO 6600FT. PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. P.W. 1.40 IN. LI -8.5. SBCAPE 3145 J/KG. STM MOTION 232/15KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 041651Z AUTO 17013KT 10SM CLR 29/25 A2989 METAR KGAO 041644Z AUTO 15009G21KT CLR 29/22 A2986 METAR KHSA 041655Z 13005KT 10SM SCT016 BKN020 29/24 A2987 METAR KIPN 041700Z AUTO 18010KT 10SM CLR 28/25 A2991 METAR KMYT 041655Z AUTO 19024KT 5SM HZ FEW014 SCT095 29/26 A2990 METAR KSPR 041655Z AUTO 19017KT 3SM BR CLR 26/25 A2980 METAR KMDJ 041655Z AUTO 19022KT 10SM BKN095 29/26 A2990 METAR KDLP 041655Z AUTO 18018KT 10SM SCT017 29/25 A2988 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT025 BKN050...SCT/NUM 1-2SM TSRA BR BKN015CB G25KT. AFT 01Z...VFR CAVOK...LCL MVFR 4-5SM BR TIL 14Z. MARINE AREAS...VFR SCT025 BKN080...AFT 16Z...VFR BKN050...SCT/NUM 1-2SM TSRA BR BKN015CB G35KT. AFT 03Z VFR SCT025...SCT 2SM SHRA/TSRA BKN018CB G25KT. KHUM 041209Z 0412/0512 14006KT P6SM VCTS FEW035CB SCT060 SCT250 TEMPO 0412/0413 VRB10G20KT -TSRA BKN025CB FM041400 17013KT P6SM VCTS BKN028CB BKN250 TEMPO 0414/0416 VRB10G35KT 3SM TSRA FM041600 18011G17KT P6SM -SHRA BKN030 BKN100 OVC250 TEMPO 0416/0418 VRB10G35KT 2SM +TSRA BKN025CB OVC050 FM041800 19013KT P6SM -SHRA BKN035CB OVC250 FM042100 20012KT P6SM SCT035 BKN250 FM050300 19006KT P6SM SCT250 FM051000 18009KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 KHSA 041245Z 0413/0512 17007KT P6SM SCT030 OVC200 FM041500 20013KT P6SM VCSH SCT040CB OVC250 TEMPO 0415/0419 -TSRA BKN035CB OVC060 FM041900 17013KT P6SM VCTS BKN035CB OVC090 TEMPO 0419/0422 TSRA FM042300 19007KT P6SM SCT035 SCT050 BKN250 FM051000 18004KT P6SM BKN250= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SAT...VFR/MVFR SCT/BKN025...SCT/NUM TSRA. MDT S/SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUN...VFR BKN035...SCT TSRA. LGT-MDT SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MON...VFR SCT035...ISOLD TSRA. LGT SW WND. .RADAR...AT 1200 CDT...ALL REMAINS QUIET NEAR THE SPILL SITE...BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN IS A LARGE MCS MOVING NE TOWARD SPILL SITE AT ABOUT 40 KTS. ON CURRENT TRACK AND SPEED...SHOULD ARRIVE AT SPILL SITE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING INTO A LINE RATHER THAN A LARGE CLUSTER. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING AS WELL AS LOCALLY HIGH SEAS. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.56 FT AT 1148 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.51 FT AT 0859 CDT. WYCM6 1.95 FT AT 1149 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.94 FT AT 1557 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 84.0F. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........69 69 69 73 73 73 WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............84 84 83 83 82 83 RH..............77 80 81 84 84 84 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..15 15 15 15 14 14 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 35 30 30 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 MIX HGT (KM)....0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.26 25 25 25 22 22 TRANS SPD (M/S).12 11 11 11 10 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60 60 60 60 CEILINGS........B30 B25 B25 B30 B35 B40 SEAS............6 6 6 6 5 5 SEA STATE.......VRO VRO VRO VRO RO RO .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........73 68 65 65 69 58 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............83 83 83 83 83 83 RH..............82 82 82 82 82 82 20 FT WIND......S 13 S 10 S 10 S 12 S 14 S 14 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 25 30 30 MIX HGT (FT)....2800 2700 2600 2600 2600 2400 MIX HGT (M).....850 820 790 790 790 730 TRANSPORT WIND..S 22 S 20 S 15 S 15 S 23 S 23 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 10 S 9 S 7 S 7 S 10 S 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............5 5 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......RO CH CH CH RO RO .SATURDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........58 72 71 71 71 68 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............83 84 85 85 85 84 RH..............82 80 77 77 77 80 20 FT WIND......S 13 S 13 S 14 S 13 S 13 S 13 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....2400 2300 2200 2200 2400 2400 MIX HGT (M).....730 700 670 670 730 730 TRANSPORT WIND..S 23 S 22 S 20 S 20 S 21 SW 18 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 10 S 10 S 9 S 9 S 9 SW 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............4 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......RO RO RO RO RO RO $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...TIM OSBORN TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100604.DEEPW.08/LIX