FNUS74 KLIX 041803 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 103 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS...AT 1300 CDT...1007MB SFC LOW PRES CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE SABINE RIVER. A SECONDARY 1008MB SFC LOW PRES CENTER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH COASTAL LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF IS LEADING TO MODERATE TO STRONG S-SWRLY FLOW. SFC PRESSURE AT SPILL SITE WAS 1012MB. SQUALL LINE STILL HAS NOT PROGRESSED MUCH SINCE LAST HOUR AND IS STILL LOCATED ALONG A LINE ROUGHLY FROM MCCOMB TO BATON ROUGE TO FRANKLIN. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...LARGE AREA OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWRD TOWARD SE LA. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 40 KTS. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT ARE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR JEFFERSON PARISH...LAFOURCHE PARISH...PLAQUEMINES PARISH AND TERREBONNE PARISH...INCLUDING PORT FOURCHON AND GRAND ISLE... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...SLGT RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER... PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS WITH 5% CHC LCL SVR TSTMS PSBL... PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 18Z RUC40 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC...SSW 14KT 250FT... S 15KT 500FT... S 16KT 1KFT... S 17KT 2KFT... S 26KT 3KFT... S 28KT 4KFT... S 22KT 5KFT... S 19KT MAX WIND...239/61KT 40.6KFT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 2500FT...INVERSION 2500FT TO 3500FT...ROUGHLY MOIST LAPSE 3500FT TO 7500FT. PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. P.W. 1.34 IN. LI -6.1 SBCAPE 2526 J/KG. STM MOTION 230/15KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 041751Z AUTO 18013G19KT 10SM FEW018 SCT100 29/25 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP126 T02890250 10300 20256 53010 TSNO METAR KGAO 041744Z AUTO 15008KT SCT007 BKN024 BKN033 27/24 A2988 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S AND NW PWINO METAR KHSA 041751Z 16005KT 7SM SCT020 BKN025 27/25 A2989 RMK VCSH METAR KIPN 041800Z AUTO 20012KT 10SM CLR 28/26 A2994 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 041755Z AUTO 24020G30KT 3/4SM BR BKN004 BKN015 OVC060 24/23 A2993 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 041755Z AUTO 16018KT 10SM CLR 26/22 A2980 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 041755Z AUTO 21021G32KT 1 1/2SM HZ FEW004 SCT016 BKN032 25/22 A2994 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 041755Z AUTO 18018G25KT 10SM SCT018 SCT100 29/25 A2989 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT025 BKN050...SCT/NUM 1-2SM TSRA BR BKN015CB G25KT. AFT 01Z...VFR CAVOK...LCL MVFR 4-5SM BR TIL 14Z. MARINE AREAS...VFR SCT025 BKN080...AFT 16Z...VFR BKN050...SCT/NUM 1-2SM TSRA BR BKN015CB G35KT. AFT 03Z VFR SCT025...SCT 2SM SHRA/TSRA BKN018CB G25KT. KHUM 041740Z 0418/0518 14010KT P6SM SCT025 BKN040CB TEMPO 0418/0422 VRB10G30KT 2SM +TSRA BKN015CB OVC035 FM042300 20012KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 BKN120 FM050300 19006KT P6SM SCT250 FM050800 18006KT 4SM BR VCSH SCT015 FM051400 19009KT P6SM VCTS SCT030CB KHSA 041740Z 0418/0518 13005KT P6SM VCTS SCT025 BKN040CB TEMPO 0418/0422 VRB10G30KT 2SM +TSRA BKN015CB OVC035 FM042200 19007KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 SCT050 BKN250 FM050500 18004KT 4SM BR SCT050 FM051400 21010KT P6SM VCTS SCT030CB= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SAT...VFR/MVFR SCT/BKN025...SCT/NUM TSRA. MDT S/SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUN...VFR BKN035...SCT TSRA. LGT-MDT SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MON...VFR SCT035...ISOLD TSRA. LGT SW WND. **************************************************************** VALID NEAR SPILL SITE. **************************************************************** .RADAR...AT 1200 CDT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN IS A LARGE MCS MOVING NE TOWARD SPILL SITE AT ABOUT 40 KTS. THESE STORMS ARE ABOUT 70 MILES TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SPILL SITE. ON CURRENT TRACK AND SPEED...SHOULD ARRIVE AT SPILL SITE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING AS WELL AS LOCALLY HIGH SEAS. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.49 FT AT 1251 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.51 FT AT 0859 CDT. WYCM6 1.96 FT AT 1251 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.94 FT AT 1557 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 85.0 F. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........69 69 73 73 73 WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............84 83 83 82 83 RH..............80 81 84 84 84 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..15 15 15 14 14 20 FT WIND GUST.35 35 35 30 30 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 MIX HGT (KM)....0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.25 25 25 22 22 TRANS SPD (M/S).11 11 11 10 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60 60 60 CEILINGS........B25 B25 B30 B35 B40 SEAS............6 6 6 5 5 SEA STATE.......VRO VRO VRO RO RO .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........73 68 68 68 69 58 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............83 82 81 81 80 80 RH..............82 82 82 82 82 82 20 FT WIND......S 13 S 10 S 10 S 12 S 14 S 14 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 25 30 30 MIX HGT (FT)....2800 2700 2600 2600 2600 2400 MIX HGT (M).....850 820 790 790 790 730 TRANSPORT WIND..S 22 S 20 S 15 S 15 S 23 S 23 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 10 S 9 S 7 S 7 S 10 S 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 40 40 40 40 40 SEAS............5 5 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......RO CH CH CH RO RO .SATURDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........58 72 71 71 71 68 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............80 81 83 85 85 85 RH..............82 80 77 77 77 80 20 FT WIND......S 13 S 13 S 14 S 13 S 13 S 13 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....2400 2300 2200 2200 2400 2400 MIX HGT (M).....730 700 670 670 730 730 TRANSPORT WIND..S 23 S 22 S 20 S 20 S 21 SW 18 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 10 S 10 S 9 S 9 S 9 SW 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............4 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......RO RO RO RO RO RO $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...TIM OSBORN TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100604.DEEPW.09/LIX