FNUS74 KLIX 042116 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 416 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS...AT 1600 CDT...1007MB SFC LOW PRES CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE SABINE RIVER. A SECONDARY 1007MB SFC LOW PRES CENTER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH COASTAL LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF IS LEADING TO MODERATE TO STRONG S-SWRLY FLOW. SFC PRESSURE AT SPILL SITE WAS 1012MB. SQUALL LINE NORTH OF TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM FRANKLINTON TO PICAYUNE TO GULFPORT...AND IS MOVING N/NEWD AT ABOUT 40 KT. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...SLGT RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER... PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS WITH 5% CHC LCL SVR TSTMS PSBL... PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 21Z RUC40 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... SW 11KT 250FT... SW 11KT 500FT... SW 13KT 1KFT...SSW 17KT 2KFT...SSW 24KT 3KFT...SSW 27KT 4KFT...SSW 27KT 5KFT...SSW 27KT MAX WIND...239/58KT 40.8KFT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 2500FT...INVERSION 2500FT TO 4200FT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. P.W. 2.34 IN. LI -5.4 SBCAPE 1564 J/KG. STM MOTION 227/20 KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 042051Z AUTO 18008KT 10SM SCT100 28/23 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP108 60002 T02780228 58018 TSNO METAR KGAO 042104Z AUTO 18012G17KT CLR 28/22 A2984 RMK AO2 PWINO METAR KHSA 042051Z 09003KT 7SM SCT037 BKN049 BKN065 23/22 A2985 METAR KIPN 042100Z AUTO 22006KT 10SM FEW120 26/23 A2987 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 042055Z AUTO 19016KT 9SM CLR 29/22 A2984 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 042055Z AUTO 18021KT 10SM 27/24 A2981 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 042055Z AUTO 18012KT 9SM CLR 26/22 A2985 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 042055Z AUTO 16009KT 10SM CLR 28/23 A2983 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...MVFR BKN025 BKN050...SCT/NUM 1-2SM TSRA BR BKN015CB G25KT. AFT 01Z...VFR SCT025 BKN080...LCL MVFR 4-5SM BR TIL 14Z. MARINE AREAS...MVFR BKN025 BKN080...SCT/NUM 1-2SM TSRA BR BKN015CB G35KT. AFT 03Z VFR SCT025...SCT 2SM SHRA/TSRA BKN018CB G25KT. KHUM 042016Z 0420/0518 17009KT P6SM VCTS SCT035CB BKN070 TEMPO 0420/0423 6SM +TSRA BKN025CB OVC040 FM042300 20012KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 BKN120 FM050300 19006KT P6SM SCT250 FM050800 18006KT 4SM BR VCSH SCT015 FM051400 19009KT P6SM VCTS SCT030CB KHSA 042014Z 0420/0518 00000KT P6SM VCTS SCT035CB OVC100 TEMPO 0420/0421 VRB10G30KT 2SM +TSRA BKN015CB OVC035 FM042100 19007KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 SCT050 BKN250 FM050500 18004KT 4SM BR SCT050 FM051400 21010KT P6SM VCTS SCT030CB= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SAT...VFR/MVFR SCT/BKN025...SCT/NUM TSRA. MDT S/SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUN...VFR BKN035...SCT TSRA. LGT-MDT SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MON...VFR SCT035...ISOLD TSRA. LGT SW WND. **************************************************************** VALID NEAR SPILL SITE. **************************************************************** .RADAR...AT 1600 CDT...WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE SPILL SITE. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AS WELL AS LOCALLY HIGH SEAS. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 1700 PM CDT .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.44 FT AT 1530 CDT FALLING...FORECAST LOW TIDE IS 0.92 FT AT 2140 CDT...BUT SW WINDS MAY KEEP TIDE LEVELS HIGHER THAN PREDICTED. WYCM6 1.85 FT AT 1530 CDT FALLING...LOW TIDE 1.23 FT AT 0157 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 85.0 F. .REST OF TODAY... TIME (CDT) 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........73 73 WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TEMP............82 83 RH..............84 84 20 FT WIND DIR..S S 20 FT WIND SPD..14 14 20 FT WIND GUST.30 30 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.8 2.8 MIX HGT (KM)....0.9 0.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S TRANSP WIND SPD.22 22 TRANS SPD (M/S).10 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 SEAS............5 5 SEA STATE.......RO RO .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........73 68 68 68 69 58 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............83 82 81 81 81 81 RH..............82 85 88 88 88 88 20 FT WIND......S 13 S 14 S 13 S 13 S 13 S 12 20 FT WIND GUST.25 30 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....2800 2700 2600 2600 2600 2400 MIX HGT (M).....850 820 790 790 790 730 TRANSPORT WIND..S 22 S 20 S 15 S 15 S 23 S 23 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 10 S 9 S 7 S 7 S 10 S 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 40 40 40 40 40 SEAS............5 6 5 5 5 5 SEA STATE.......RO CH CH CH RO RO .SATURDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........58 72 71 71 71 68 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............81 81 83 85 85 85 RH..............88 88 82 77 77 77 20 FT WIND......S 13 S 13 S 14 S 13 S 13 S 13 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....2400 2300 2200 2200 2400 2400 MIX HGT (M).....730 700 670 670 730 730 TRANSPORT WIND..S 23 S 22 S 20 S 20 S 21 SW 18 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 10 S 10 S 9 S 9 S 9 SW 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............5 5 5 5 5 5 SEA STATE.......RO RO RO RO RO RO $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...TIM OSBORN TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100604.DEEPW.12/LIX