FNUS74 KLIX 042223 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 523 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS...AT 1700 CDT...1006MB SFC LOW PRES CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE SABINE RIVER/TOLEDO BEND AREA. A TROUGH WAS EXTENDING FROM THIS SFC LOW THROUGH COASTAL LOUISIANA AND INTO THE GULF JUST SOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF IS LEADING TO MODERATE TO STRONG S-SWRLY FLOW. SFC PRESSURE AT SPILL SITE WAS 1012MB. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DECREASED AND STRONG SQL LINE HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST AND BASICALLY DUE SOUTH OF THE FL/AL BORDER. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...SLGT RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER... PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS WITH 5% CHC LCL SVR TSTMS PSBL... PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 22Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... S 6KT 250FT... S 9KT 500FT... S 11KT 1KFT... S 17KT 2KFT...SSW 23KT 3KFT...SSW 25KT 4KFT...SSW 24KT 5KFT...SSW 23KT MAX WIND...243/58KT 40.7KFT. PSUEDO MOIST LAPSE SFC TO 2500FT... INVERSION 2500FT TO 4200FT...PSEUDO MOIST LAPSE ABV. P.W. 2.01 IN. LI -5...SBCAPE 1422 J/KG. STM MOTION 230/19 KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 042151Z AUTO 17011KT 10SM FEW090 29/22 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP106 T02890222 TSNO METAR KGAO 042204Z AUTO 17008KT CLR 28/22 A2982 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S PWINO METAR KHSA 042153Z 00000KT 7SM SCT095 BKN110 23/23 A2984 METAR KIPN 042220Z AUTO 14005KT 10SM CLR 28/24 A2986 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 042215Z AUTO 21013KT 9SM CLR 29/23 A2983 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 042215Z AUTO 19019KT 10SM CLR 27/24 A2980 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 042215Z AUTO 20010KT 10SM FEW026 27/23 A2985 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 042215Z AUTO 18012KT 10SM CLR 28/23 A2982 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...MVFR BKN025 BKN050...SCT/NUM 1-2SM TSRA BR BKN015CB G25KT. AFT 01Z...VFR SCT025 BKN080...LCL MVFR 4-5SM BR TIL 14Z. MARINE AREAS...MVFR BKN025 BKN080...SCT/NUM 1-2SM TSRA BR BKN015CB G35KT. AFT 03Z VFR SCT025...SCT 2SM SHRA/TSRA BKN018CB G25KT. KHUM 042016Z 0420/0518 17009KT P6SM VCTS SCT035CB BKN070 TEMPO 0420/0423 6SM +TSRA BKN025CB OVC040 FM042300 20012KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 BKN120 FM050300 19006KT P6SM SCT250 FM050800 18006KT 4SM BR VCSH SCT015 FM051400 19009KT P6SM VCTS SCT030CB KHSA 042014Z 0420/0518 00000KT P6SM VCTS SCT035CB OVC100 TEMPO 0420/0421 VRB10G30KT 2SM +TSRA BKN015CB OVC035 FM042100 19007KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 SCT050 BKN250 FM050500 18004KT 4SM BR SCT050 FM051400 21010KT P6SM VCTS SCT030CB= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SAT...VFR/MVFR SCT/BKN025...SCT/NUM TSRA. MDT S/SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUN...VFR BKN035...SCT TSRA. LGT-MDT SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MON...VFR SCT035...ISOLD TSRA. LGT SW WND. **************************************************************** VALID NEAR SPILL SITE. **************************************************************** .RADAR...AT 1700 CDT...RADAR HAS CLEARED UP OVER THE SPILL SITE AND ALL OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVED WELL OFF TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.42 FT AT 1630 CDT FALLING...LOW TIDE 0.92 FT AT 2159 CDT. WYCM6 1.71 FT AT 1642 CDT FALLING...LOW TIDE 1.23 FT AT 0157 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 85.0 F. .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........73 73 68 68 68 68 68 69 69 69 69 58 58 WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............83 83 83 82 82 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 RH..............82 82 85 85 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..15 16 16 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 20 FT WIND GUST.30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 MIX HGT (KM)....0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.22 22 20 20 20 15 15 23 23 23 23 23 23 TRANS SPD (M/S).10 10 9 9 9 7 7 10 10 10 10 10 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 SEAS............5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......RO RO CH CH CH CH CH RO RO RO RO RO RO .SATURDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........58 72 71 71 71 68 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............81 81 83 85 85 85 RH..............88 88 82 77 77 77 20 FT WIND......S 14 S 14 S 13 S 13 S 13 S 12 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....2400 2300 2200 2200 2400 2400 MIX HGT (M).....730 700 670 670 730 730 TRANSPORT WIND..S 23 S 22 S 20 S 20 S 21 SW 18 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 10 S 10 S 9 S 9 S 9 SW 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............4 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......RO RO RO RO RO RO .SATURDAY NIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........68 59 59 59 44 44 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............84 83 82 82 81 81 RH..............80 82 88 90 93 91 20 FT WIND......S 11 S 10 S 10 S 11 S 11 S 11 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....2400 2400 2400 2400 2000 1900 MIX HGT (M).....730 730 730 730 610 580 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 18 SW 21 S 16 S 16 S 17 S 17 TRAN WIND (M/S).SW 8 SW 9 S 7 S 7 S 8 S 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............4 4 4 4 4 4 SEA STATE.......RO CH CH CH CH RO $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...TIM OSBORN TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100604.DEEPW.13/LIX