FNUS71 KCTP 051505 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR SPECIALIZED CREW CAMP...PA BUREAU OF FORESTRY/DCNR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1105 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1029 EDT ON JUNE 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... ...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN AFFECT FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF PENNSYLVANIA FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH NOON SUNDAY... SEVERAL POTENT DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...ABOVE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS SITUATED OVER THE COMMONWEALTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TH AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE... CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY DRY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1400...THEN 16-25 STRIKES. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17 TO 22 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............76 74 72 71 73 76 79 WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP................77 79 80 81 81 81 80 MIN HUMIDITY........65 60 57 55 55 56 57 20 FT WIND DIR......W W W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD......10 13 14 16 15 15 13 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 20 20 20 20 20 TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.....17 18 18 20 21 22 22 LAL.................3 3 3 4 4 4 4 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 3 3 3 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65. MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. LAL.................16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 2000...THEN >25 STRIKES. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 22 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............81 84 86 87 89 91 93 95 96 95 93 91 WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE........TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP................79 78 76 73 70 68 67 67 67 66 66 66 MIN HUMIDITY........59 63 67 74 82 88 91 91 92 94 95 96 20 FT WIND DIR......W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD......12 10 8 7 5 3 2 2 2 2 3 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.....22 21 18 16 14 12 10 10 12 13 14 16 LAL.................4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX........4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 .SUNDAY... LAL.................>25 STRIKES UNTIL 1400...THEN 16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 1700...THEN NO TSTMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 25 MPH...INCREASING TO 31 TO 38 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING WEST 36 TO 44 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...BECOMING NORTHWEST 29 TO 32 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.....18 21 25 31 38 43 44 41 38 36 32 29 LAL.................5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 1 HAINES INDEX........2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...WFO CTP/GARTNER REQUESTED BY...MATT REED SITL TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100605.SPECI.01/CTP