FNUS74 KLIX 051106 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 606 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010 I.SYNOPSIS...AT 0600 CDT...A TROF XTNDG THRU CSTL LA AND MS CSTL WATERS. HIGH PRES RIDGG FM WRN ATLC INTO ERN GLFMEX. UPR LOW PRES SYS OVR SW LA XPTD TO SLWLY FILL AND LIFT NE THRUOUT THE DAY...BUT TRIGGER NUMRS TSTMS OVR SE LA/S MS AND CSTL WATERS TODAY. SFC PRES AT SPILL SITE WAS 1012MB. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS WITH 5% CHC LCL SVR TSTMS PSBL... PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS...LCL AFTN PULSE SVR PSBL. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 10Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC...SSW 16KT 250FT...SSW 16KT 500FT...SSW 17KT 1KFT...SSW 17KT 2KFT...SSW 17KT 3KFT...SSW 13KT 4KFT...SSW 12KT 5KFT...SSW 13KT MAX WIND...223/61KT 40.8KFT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 1900 FT...WARM LAPSE TO 4100FT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. INV-V 3C DEP 1000MB/325FT...MOIST 2C DEP 950MB/1700FT...V-DRY ABV. P.W. 1.57 IN. LI -6...SBCAPE 2985 J/KG. STM MOTION 247/17 KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 051051Z AUTO 18009KT 8SM SCT100 26/24 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP123 T02610244 TSNO METAR KGAO 051044Z AUTO 17003KT 25/24 A2987 RMK AO2 PWINO METAR KHSA MISG METAR KIPN 051100Z AUTO 16012KT 10SM CLR 28/27 A2992 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 051055Z AUTO 18013KT 7SM FEW017 28/25 A2990 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 051055Z AUTO 18017KT 10SM SCT065 BKN080 28/25 A2986 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 051055Z AUTO 18018KT 10SM FEW090 28/23 A2990 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 051055Z AUTO 18015KT 10SM CLR 28/25 A2988 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT015-020...LCL MVFR 5SM BR TIL 14Z. AFT 16Z...SCT-BKN032...SCT 2SM TSRA BKN022CB G30KT TOPS 450. AFT 22Z...VFR...FEW030 BKN080...ISOLD TSRA TOPS 400. AFT 01Z...VFR CAVOK. MARINE AREAS...VFR SCT025. AFT 16Z...SCT-NMRS 1SM +TSRA BKN020CB G35KT TOPS 450. AFT 22Z...VFR FEW025 OVC080 MDT SW WND. KHUM 050537Z 0506/0606 18005KT P6SM SCT015 TEMPO 0506/0510 2SM BR BKN008 FM051000 19009KT P6SM VCTS SCT030CB FM051500 19012KT P6SM VCTS SCT030 BKN050CB FM060100 16005KT P6SM SCT030 KHSA 050537Z 0506/0606 19008KT P6SM SCT060 SCT200 FM050900 18010KT P6SM VCTS SCT030CB TEMPO 0514/0517 TSRA BKN030CB FM051700 19010KT P6SM VCTS SCT030CB FM060100 18005KT P6SM SCT030 AMD NOT SKED TIL 051200= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUN...VFR BKN035...SCT TSRA. MDT SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MON...VFR CAVOK...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. LGT NW-W WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUE...VFR CAVU. LGT SE WND. .RADAR...AT 0600 CDT...AN ISOLD DEVLPG SHWR WAS DETECTED 26NM SW OF SPILL LOCATION. NO LGTNG DETECTED WITHIN 100NM OF SPILL LOCATION. TRACKING A LINE OF STG TSTMS OVER SW-CNTRL LA...289NM NW OF SPILL LOCATION...LN MOVMT STNRY...CELL MOVMT NE 11KT. WHILE NOT DETECTED ATTM...RAINFALL MODELS INDICATE RAPID DEVLPMT OF WIDESPREAD TSTMS VCNTY BARATARIA BAY AND SE LA EARLY THIS AM. THIS COULD IMPACT AVN OPS OUT OF SE LA TERMINALS BETWEEN 13Z-16Z. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.49 FT AT 0538 CDT RISING NR HIGH TIDE 1.53 FT AT 0859 CDT. WYCM6 1.78 FT AT 0538 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.61 FT AT 1154 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 84.0 F. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........73 73 73 76 76 76 76 75 75 75 75 75 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............81 81 82 83 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 RH..............88 88 88 88 85 82 80 80 80 80 80 82 HEAT INDEX (F)..88 88 91 93 95 95 94 94 94 94 94 95 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.4 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 MIX HGT (KM)....0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.23 22 22 22 16 16 18 18 18 18 18 18 TRANS SPD (M/S).10 10 10 10 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 CEILINGS........50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 SEA STATE.......RO RO RO RO RO RO RO RO RO RO RO RO .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........75 73 69 69 64 66 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............84 83 82 82 81 81 RH..............82 85 91 88 89 92 HEAT INDEX (F)..95 93 92 91 89 90 20 FT WIND......S 8 S 8 S 9 S 10 S 10 S 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 20 20 15 MIX HGT (FT)....2700 2600 2400 2400 2300 1900 MIX HGT (M).....820 790 730 730 700 580 TRANSPORT WIND..S 18 S 10 S 14 S 14 S 17 S 17 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 8 S 4 S 6 S 6 S 8 S 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............3 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......RO CH CH CH CH RO .SUNDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........66 68 69 69 70 66 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............81 81 83 85 84 85 RH..............91 91 82 80 82 80 HEAT INDEX (F)..89 89 92 97 95 97 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 7 SW 8 SW 8 SW 8 SW 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....1900 2200 2600 2600 2800 2800 MIX HGT (M).....580 670 790 790 850 850 TRANSPORT WIND..S 17 S 15 S 15 S 15 S 16 SW 16 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 8 S 7 S 7 S 7 S 7 SW 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 40 40 40 40 40 SEAS............3 2 2 2 3 3 SEA STATE.......RO CH CH CH CH CH .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .TUESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100605.DEEPW.02/LIX