FNUS74 KLIX 051313 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 813 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010 .SYNOPSIS...AT 0800 CDT...A 1012MB TROF XTNDD THRU CSTL LA AND MS CSTL WATERS. 1018MB HIGH PRES RDG ALG FL PEN...RDGG TO 1014MB BUBBLE HIGH NR 28N/89W. UPR LOW PRES SYS OVR SW LA XPTD TO SLWLY FILL AND LIFT NE THRUOUT THE DAY...BUT TRIGGER NUMRS TSTMS OVR SE LA/S MS AND CSTL WATERS TODAY. SFC PRES AT SPILL SITE WAS 1013MB. .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS WITH 5% CHC LCL SVR TSTMS PSBL... PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS...LCL AFTN PULSE SVR PSBL. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 11Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... S 12KT 250FT... S 13KT 500FT... S 14KT 1KFT... S 15KT 2KFT... S 17KT 3KFT... S 15KT 4KFT... S 12KT 5KFT... S 12KT MAX WIND...227/67KT 40.8KFT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 1900 FT...WARM LAPSE TO 4300FT...DRY LAPSE TO 10.3KFT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. INV-V 2C DEP 975MB/1000FT...V-DRY TO 875MB/4200FT...MOIST LYR BTWN 875-750MB...V-DRY ABV. P.W. 1.60 IN. LI -7...SBCAPE 3531 J/KG. STM MOTION 244/15 KT. 12Z KLIX SOUNDING SFC...000/00KT 1KFT...185/15KT 2KFT...200/19KT 3KFT...215/23KT 4KFT...225/29KT 5KFT...215/38KT MAX WIND...220/72KT 39.0KFT. SFC INVERSION TO 350FT...DRY LAPSE TO 1400FT...ISOTHERMAL TO 3300FT...DRY LAPSE TO 9100FT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. SATURATED TO 962MB/1400FT...V-DRY TO 930MB...MOIST LYR 825-730MB...V-DRY ABV. P.W. 1.74 IN. LI -9...SBCAPE 3764 J/KG. STM MOTION 248/22 KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 051251Z AUTO 19007KT 6SM HZ FEW100 28/24 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP136 T02780244 TSNO METAR KGAO 051304Z AUTO 17007KT CLR 28/25 A2992 RMK AO2 PWINO METAR KHSA 050155Z 19008KT 10SM CLR 24/23 A2985 METAR KIPN 051300Z AUTO 15012KT 10SM FEW012 SCT019 SCT029 28/27 A2994 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 051255Z AUTO 18015KT 4SM HZ FEW023 29/26 A2992 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 051255Z AUTO 18013KT 9SM CLR 28/26 A2989 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 051255Z AUTO 18014KT 9SM SCT017 29/25 A2993 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 051255Z AUTO 18015KT 10SM CLR 29/25 A2992 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT015-020...LCL MVFR 5SM BR TIL 14Z. AFT 16Z...SCT-BKN032...SCT 2SM TSRA BKN022CB G30KT TOPS 450. AFT 22Z...VFR...FEW035 BKN080...ISOLD TSRA SCT035CB TOPS 400. AFT 01Z...VFR CAVOK. MARINE AREAS...VFR SCT025. AFT 16Z...SCT-NMRS 1SM +TSRA BKN020CB G35KT TOPS 450. AFT 22Z...VFR FEW025 OVC080 MDT SW WND. KHUM 051122Z 0512/0612 19010KT P6SM VCTS SCT030CB TEMPO 0515/0519 2SM TSRA BKN020CB FM060100 16005KT P6SM SCT030 KHSA 051231Z 0513/0612 18007KT P6SM SCT020 BKN080 FM051400 18010KT P6SM VCTS SCT030CB TEMPO 0515/0518 2SM TSRA BKN030CB FM060100 18005KT P6SM SCT030= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUN...VFR BKN035...SCT TSRA. MDT SW WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MON...VFR CAVOK...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. LGT NW-W WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUE...VFR CAVU. LGT SE WND. .RADAR...AT 0800 CDT...ISOLD SHWRS GENLY BYD 90NM OF SPILL LOCATION. LRG LN OF TSTMS OVR CNTRL LA...260NM NW...LN MOVMT STNRY BUT XPNDG E...CELL MOVMT NE 11KT. WHILE NOT DETECTED ATTM...RAINFALL MODELS INDICATE RAPID DEVLPMT OF WIDESPREAD TSTMS VCNTY BARATARIA BAY AND SE LA EARLY THIS AM. THIS COULD IMPACT AVN OPS OUT OF SE LA TERMINALS BETWEEN 13Z-16Z. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.60 FT AT 0738 CDT STEADY NR HIGH TIDE. WYCM6 1.90 FT AT 0744 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.61 FT AT 1154 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 83.8 F. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........73 73 76 76 76 75 75 75 75 75 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............81 82 83 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 RH..............88 88 85 82 80 80 80 80 80 80 HEAT INDEX (F)..88 91 93 95 94 94 94 94 94 94 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..13 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 MIX HGT (KM)....0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.22 22 16 16 16 18 18 18 18 18 TRANS SPD (M/S).10 10 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 CEILINGS........S20 S25 B25 B25 O18 S25 S25 O80 O80 O80 SEAS............4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 SEA STATE.......RO RO RO RO RO RO RO RO RO RO .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........75 73 69 69 64 66 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............84 83 82 82 81 81 RH..............82 85 91 88 89 92 HEAT INDEX (F)..95 93 92 91 89 90 20 FT WIND......S 8 S 8 S 9 S 10 S 10 S 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 20 20 15 MIX HGT (FT)....2700 2600 2400 2400 2300 1900 MIX HGT (M).....820 790 730 730 700 580 TRANSPORT WIND..S 18 S 10 S 14 S 14 S 17 S 17 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 8 S 4 S 6 S 6 S 8 S 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50 SEAS............3 3 3 3 3 3 SEA STATE.......RO CH CH CH CH RO .SUNDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........66 68 69 69 70 66 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............81 81 83 85 84 85 RH..............91 91 82 80 82 80 HEAT INDEX (F)..89 89 92 97 95 97 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 7 SW 8 SW 8 SW 8 SW 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....1900 2200 2600 2600 2800 2800 MIX HGT (M).....580 670 790 790 850 850 TRANSPORT WIND..S 17 S 15 S 15 S 15 S 16 SW 16 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 8 S 7 S 7 S 7 S 7 SW 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 40 40 40 40 40 SEAS............3 2 2 2 3 3 SEA STATE.......RO CH CH CH CH CH .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .TUESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/24 REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100605.DEEPW.04/LIX