FNUS75 KPUB 090107
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEDANO...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
707 PM MDT TUE JUN 8 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...LOCAL RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FIRE AREA AS WELL
AS FOR ZONE 224...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...FOR WEDNESDAY FROM NOON TO
2000...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN COLORADO TODAY
WHICH WAS DEEP ENOUGH TO SEND EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SANGRES INTO
THE BURN SITE TODAY.  FOR TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT.  THIS WILL CAUSE
RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO EXTEND TO
THE NORTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL VICINITY OF THE BURN SITE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW EVENING...EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE ZONE 225 (THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ZONE) IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.  COMBINED WITH HIGH HAINES VALUES...
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR IS POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS GUSTY WINDS AND HOT CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE BURN SITE.
A FIRE  WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE BURN SITE AS WELL AS ALL OF ZONE 224 AND 225
(SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.)  WIND GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH HAINES VALUES OF 5 TO
6 AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

HOT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY THOUGH WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE LIGHTER.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(49 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY(64 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53F.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........EAST WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    NORTHEAST 4-8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 1000 FT AGL AFTER
                    2100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN SOUTH
                    AROUND 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 2100.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(48 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1500...THEN
                    ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-88F.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHEAST 4-8 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTHEAST 10-15
                    MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 12500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.

$$
FORECASTER...TORGERSON
REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100608.MEDAN.01/PUB