FNUS75 KPUB 091531
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEDANO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
931 AM MDT WED JUN 9 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEDANO...USFS...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
928 AM MDT WED JUN 9 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

...UPDATED TO INCLUDE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 225...

.DISCUSSION...

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWEST TODAY AND GUSTY...AND THE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT.  THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
HAINES INDICES OF 6 AND DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

THE WINDS WILL LET UP TONIGHT WITH HUMIDITIES GOING ABOVE 15 PERCENT.
HOWEVER ON THURSDAY EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
HUMIDITIES
ONCE AGAIN DROPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT.  THE HAINES INDICES WILL BE A 5
OR 6.  CURRENTLY WE HAVE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA
THURSDAY...BUT IF THE NEW FORECAST MODELS THAT COME IN LATER THIS
MORNING LOOK MUCH THE SAME...IT IS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE UPGRADED
THIS AFTERNOON TO A RED FLAG WARNING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(43 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1500...THEN
                    ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85F.
MIN HUMIDITY........6-11 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST 14-19
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 15000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 24 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(31 PERCENT). ISOLATED DRY
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56F.
MAX HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST WINDS 11-15 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    DOWNSLOPE 5-10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 500 FT AGL AFTER 2100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 0400.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84F.
MIN HUMIDITY........7-12 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE 6-12 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTHWEST 17-22 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 14000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    AROUND 34 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT BY 1100.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON
THURSDAY AND INTO THE DESERT SW INTO FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS
DIFFER ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST THINKING KEEPS HOT AND DRY SW
ALOFT ACROSS THE BURN SITE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
WORKING DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO BRING IN A MOIST AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE BURN SITE
WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AT LEAST...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL EJECT OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

...EXTENDED FORECAST FROM FIRE WEATHER FORECAST ZONE 225...

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS 42 TO 56. HIGHS 63 TO 84. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH.
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 41 TO
49. HIGHS 57 TO 73. EAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 37 TO 47.
HIGHS 53 TO 72. EAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 34 TO 50.
HIGHS 56 TO 75.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 36 TO 51.
HIGHS 59 TO 78.

$$

REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE