FNUS75 KPUB 141039
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEDANO...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
439 AM MDT MON JUN 14 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS RETURNED YESTERDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AIR FROM THE VALLEY INTO THE SITE. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST AND BECOMING BRIEFLY GUSTY AT TIMES.
TOUGH TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
TODAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. IF
WIDESPREAD STORMS DO DEVELOP EAST OF THE FIRE...COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PASS LATE AFTERNOON.
ON TUESDAY...LEFT A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...THOUGH ANY STORMS BY AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LITTLE RAINFALL.

STILL APPEARS A PROLONGED WARM...DRY AND POTENTIALLY WINDY WEATHER
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FROM MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(46 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4 TO 8 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    AFTER 1200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 11000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN WEST
                    AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY(27 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44F.
MAX HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4 TO 8 MPH
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN EAST
                    UNTIL 0200...THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY SUNNY(52
                    PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74F.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-18 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4 TO 8 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    AFTER 1200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 11500 FT AGL AFTER 0900.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. EXCELLENT AFTER 1000.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.

$$
FORECASTER...PETERSEN
REQUESTED BY...DISPATCHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100613.MEDAN.01/PUB