FNUS74 KLIX 141102 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 602 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS...AT 0600 CDT...FLAT 1016MB PLATEAU ACROSS MUCH OF THE GLFMEX. LOOSE 3MB GRADIENT WRN GLFMEX. UPR LVL LOW SHOWN VIVIDLY IN WV LOOP OVR OPS AREA WITH LTL WX ASSOCD NR CENTER. RING OF CONVECTION ON OUTER FRINGES OF CIRCULATION WITH SCT TSTMS ACROSS S-CNTRL GLFMEX AND THRU FL STRAITS. SFC PRES AT SPILL SITE WAS 1016MB. .HEAT INDEX READINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS... AT 0600 CDT... BOOTHVILLE ASOS /KBVE/...MISSING HOUMA AWOS /KHUM/... 80F GALLIANO AWOS /KGAO/... 80F SLIDELL ASOS /KASD/... 80F WEST DELTA AWOS-3 /DLP/... 94F RIG INDEPENDENCE AWOS /IPN/...MISSING GULFPORT ASOS /KGPT/... 85F .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS...LCL AFTN PULSE SVR PSBL MAINLY OVER LAND AREAS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS...LCL AFTN PULSE SVR PSBL MAINLY OVER LAND AREAS. ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING... A STAGNANT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL YIELD IN HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM 104 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL AS COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. WARMER URBAN AREAS MAY SEE THE HEAT INDEX RISE TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND ALLOW DEEP MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON EACH DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES ARE SUGGESTED AT HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 11Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... W 7KT 250FT...WNW 7KT 500FT...WNW 7KT 1KFT... W 6KT 2KFT...LT & VRB 3KFT... E 9KT 4KFT...ESE 16KT 5KFT... E 19KT MAX WIND...095/20KT 27.9KFT. DRY LAPSE TO 2600FT...MOIST TO 6500FT... MODERATELY MOIST LAPSE ABV. DRY THROUGHOUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN. P.W. 1.47 IN. LI -7. SBCAPE 3011 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 115/09KT. 14/06Z NAM12 MODEL SNDG AT SPOT LOCATION VALID 18Z TUE 06/15/10 SFC... SE 4KT 250FT... SE 4KT 500FT... SE 4KT 1KFT... SE 4KT 2KFT... SE 5KT 3KFT... SE 4KT 4KFT... SE 4KT 5KFT... E 2KT MAX WIND...225/33KT 36.1KFT. DRY LAPSE TO 3000FT...SATURATED PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. INV-V TO 1C DEP AT 920MB/2900FT...SATURATED ABV. P.W. 2.36 IN. LI -3. SBCAPE 661 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 201/04KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 111351Z AUTO 16008KT 10SM FEW065 30/25 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP179 T03000250 TSNO METAR KGAO 141045Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 25/23 A3000 RMK AO2 METAR KHSA 140152Z 00000KT 10SM CLR 26/25 A3000 METAR KIPN 121835Z AUTO 10011KT 9SM CLR 29/25 A3013 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 141055Z AUTO 20004KT 10SM FEW020 29/24 A2999 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 141055Z AUTO 21007KT 10SM CLR 28/25 A2998 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 141055Z AUTO 22004KT 10SM BKN021 BKN028 30/25 A3001 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 141055Z AUTO 21004KT 9SM CLR 29/25 A2999 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR FEW025. NO SIG WX. AFT 09Z...LCL 4-5SM BR TIL 14Z. LCL BKN025 VCTS 20/23Z. MARINE AREAS...VFR FEW025. NO SIG WX. KHUM 140524Z 1406/1506 18006KT P6SM SCT040 FM141000 00000KT P6SM SCT015 SCT025 TEMPO 1414/1416 BKN025 FM141700 16006KT P6SM SCT040 TEMPO 1419/1421 BKN040 KHSA 140524Z 1406/1506 17006KT P6SM SCT040 FM141000 00000KT 5SM BR SCT020 FM141300 00000KT P6SM SCT015 FM141800 23006KT P6SM SCT040 AMD NOT SKED AFT 150200= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUE...VFR SCT-BKN030. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE COAST. LGT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WED...MVFR SCT-BKN025. ISOLD SHRA. LGT S WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THU...MVFR SCT-BKN025. ISOLD SHRA. LGT S WND. .RADAR...AT 0600 CDT...NO ECHOES OR LGTNG DETECTED WITHIN 150NM. CLOSEST TSRA WAS JUST OUTSIDE OF 150NM DUE SOUTH AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.57 FT AT 0536 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 2.15 FT AT 0958 CDT. WYCM6 1.20 FT AT 0532 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 2.88 FT AT 1300 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 88.2 F. .REST OF TODAY... TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........25 25 25 25 25 25 40 40 40 40 40 40 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............84 84 84 84 84 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 RH..............74 74 74 82 82 77 70 70 70 70 70 70 HEAT INDEX (F)..92 92 92 92 93 98 98 98 98 98 98 96 20 FT WIND DIR..W W NW NW NW N N NE SE S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.4 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 MIX HGT (KM)....0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W N N N E E E SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 TRANS SPD (M/S).4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......LC LC LC LC LC LC LC SM SM SM SM SM .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........40 35 35 35 30 30 WEATHER COV..... S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TEMP............86 86 85 84 84 84 RH..............70 70 75 77 77 77 HEAT INDEX (F)..95 95 94 93 93 93 20 FT WIND......S 5 S 5 S 5 S 6 S 6 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....3000 2900 2800 2800 2700 2600 MIX HGT (M).....910 880 850 850 820 790 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 5 S 2 S 3 S 3 S 8 S 7 TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 2 S 1 S 1 S 1 S 4 S 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 20 SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......SM LC LC LC LC LC .TUESDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........30 35 35 35 50 50 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............84 84 81 86 86 86 RH..............74 74 82 70 70 68 HEAT INDEX (F)..92 92 87 95 95 94 20 FT WIND......S 6 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 S 5 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2600 2500 2900 2900 3300 3200 MIX HGT (M).....790 760 880 880 1010 980 TRANSPORT WIND..S 7 S 6 S 7 S 7 S 7 S 7 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 3 S 3 S 3 S 3 S 3 S 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 20 20 20 SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......LC LC LC LC LC LC $$ FORECASTER...BANNAN REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100614.DEEPW.03/LIX