FNUS74 KLIX 142114 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 414 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS...AT 1600 CDT...FLAT 1016/1017MB RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GLFMEX. LOOSE 4MB GRADIENT WRN GLFMEX. UPR LVL LOW SEEN IN WV OVR OPS AREA MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST WITH LTL WX ASSOCD NR CENTER. ISLTD CONVECTION ON FRINGES OF CIRCULATION CONTINUES ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN GLFMEX. ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTH OF BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL MOVE TO THE NNW. SFC PRES AT SPILL SITE WAS 1016MB. .HEAT INDEX READINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS... AT 1600 CDT... BOOTHVILLE ASOS /KBVE/... 96F HOUMA AWOS /KHUM/...105F GALLIANO AWOS /KGAO/...102F SLIDELL ASOS /KASD/...100F WEST DELTA AWOS-3 /DLP/...105F RIG INDEPENDENCE AWOS /IPN/...MISSING GULFPORT ASOS /KGPT/...110F .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS...LCL AFTN PULSE SVR PSBL MAINLY OVER LAND AREAS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS...LCL AFTN PULSE SVR PSBL MAINLY OVER LAND AREAS. ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING... A STAGNANT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL YIELD IN HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM 104 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL AS COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. WARMER URBAN AREAS MAY SEE THE HEAT INDEX RISE TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND ALLOW DEEP MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON EACH DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES ARE SUGGESTED AT HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 19Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC...ESE 9KT 250FT...ESE 11KT 500FT...ESE 9KT 1KFT...ESE 11KT 2KFT... E 7KT 3KFT...NNE 7KT 4KFT... NE 8KT 5KFT...ENE 11KT MAX WIND...205/22KT 32.1KFT. DRY LAPSE TO 3500FT...INVERSION TO 5800FT... MODERATELY MOIST LAPSE ABV. DRY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN. P.W. 1.76 IN. LI -6. SBCAPE 1599 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 122/10KT. 14/06Z NAM12 MODEL SNDG AT SPOT LOCATION VALID 18Z TUE 06/15/10 SFC... SE 4KT 250FT... SE 4KT 500FT... SE 4KT 1KFT... SE 4KT 2KFT... SE 5KT 3KFT... SE 4KT 4KFT... SE 4KT 5KFT... E 2KT MAX WIND...225/33KT 36.1KFT. DRY LAPSE TO 3000FT...SATURATED PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. INV-V TO 1C DEP AT 920MB/2900FT...SATURATED ABV. P.W. 2.36 IN. LI -3. SBCAPE 661 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 201/04KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 142051Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW050 31/23 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP155 T03110228 56013 TSNO METAR KGAO 142105Z AUTO 21005KT SCT034 33/24 A2997 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NW PWINO METAR KHSA 142050Z 16006KT 10SM SCT050 33/23 A2995 METAR KIPN 121835Z AUTO 10011KT 9SM CLR 29/25 A3013 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 142055Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT035 31/22 A2998 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 142055Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM 32/24 A2999 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 142055Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW032 31/24 A3000 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 142055Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM CLR 34/24 A2998 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR FEW025. NO SIG WX. AFT 09Z...LCL 4-5SM BR TIL 14Z. LCL BKN025 VCTS 20/23Z. MARINE AREAS...VFR FEW025. NO SIG WX. KHUM 142109Z 1421/1518 20006KT P6SM VCTS SCT040CB SCT080 TEMPO 1421/1423 BKN040CB FM150200 20006KT P6SM FEW045 FM151200 VRB03KT 6SM HZ SCT025 FM151600 17008KT P6SM SCT045 KHSA 141733Z 1418/1518 VRB04KT P6SM SCT040 TEMPO 1419/1422 BKN040 FM150000 19004KT P6SM SKC FM151200 VRB04KT P6SM SCT025 FM151500 34006KT P6SM SCT045= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUE...VFR SCT-BKN030. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE COAST. LGT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WED...MVFR SCT-BKN025. ISOLD SHRA. LGT S WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THU...MVFR SCT-BKN025. ISOLD SHRA. LGT S WND. .RADAR...AT 1600 CDT...ISLTD TO WIDELY SCT LIGHT SHRA AND TSRA WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE LA COAST AND COASTAL WATERS JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND EAST OF THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS. OVERALL THE OPS AREA REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR OF SHRA AND TSRA BUT ISLTD SHRA WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SPILL SITE. CLOSEST LGHTNG DETECTED WAS 130NM TO THE N AND 140NM TO THE WNW. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.30 FT AT 1535 CDT FALLING...LOW TIDE 0.04 FT AT 2100 CDT. WYCM6 2.20 FT AT 1535 CDT FALLING...LOW TIDE 0.25 FT AT 0000 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 95.9 F. .REST OF TODAY... TIME (CDT) 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........40 40 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............87 87 RH..............70 70 HEAT INDEX (F)..98 96 20 FT WIND DIR..S S 20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.0 3.0 MIX HGT (KM)....0.9 0.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.E E TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 TRANS SPD (M/S).3 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 SEAS............1 1 SEA STATE.......SM SM .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........40 35 35 35 30 30 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............86 85 84 84 82 82 RH..............70 72 77 77 82 82 HEAT INDEX (F)..95 94 93 93 89 89 20 FT WIND......S 5 E 2 S 3 S 5 S 6 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 10 10 15 MIX HGT (FT)....3000 3000 2800 2800 2700 2600 MIX HGT (M).....910 910 850 850 820 790 TRANSPORT WIND..E 6 S 6 S 9 S 9 S 12 S 10 TRAN WIND (M/S).E 3 S 3 S 4 S 4 S 5 S 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......SM LC LC LC LC LC .TUESDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........30 35 35 35 50 50 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............82 82 83 86 86 86 RH..............79 79 77 70 70 68 HEAT INDEX (F)..89 89 90 95 95 94 20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 6 SW 4 S 3 SE 6 S 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 10 5 MIX HGT (FT)....2600 2800 3100 3100 3300 3300 MIX HGT (M).....790 850 940 940 1010 1010 TRANSPORT WIND..S 10 S 8 S 9 S 9 SW 10 S 9 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 4 S 4 S 4 S 4 SW 4 S 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 20 20 20 SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......LC LC LC LC LC LC $$ FORECASTER...BANNAN REQUESTED BY...TIM OSBORN TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100614.DEEPW.11/LIX