FNUS75 KRIW 152002
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BRYAN FLATS...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
202 PM MDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1330 MDT ON JUNE 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL AND ABOVE AHEAD
OF A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BURN AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EARLY EVENING. WIND WILL SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW FROM ALOFT MIXES DOWN. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH HOBACK CANYON EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BECOME STRONG TO VERY STRONG
SOUTHWEST WIND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING STRONG TO VERY STRONG
WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...CHURCH

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH UNTIL AROUND 1500...
                    BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST 12 TO 16 MPH...WITH GUSTS
                    TO 22 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    25 MPH TO 35 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3.
CWR.................15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8300-9300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (160500 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-48.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...
                    BECOMING SOUTHEAST 9 TO 13 MPH AND GUSTY AFTER
                    APPROXIMATELY 2000 HOURS.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800-6800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1700-2700 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 23 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 18
                    TO 23 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (122000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (34300 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EVENING...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WEST-NORTHWEST 15-25 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH.
.FRIDAY...WARMER. PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...CHURCH
REQUESTED BY...MARKASON
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100615.BRYAN.01/RIW