FNUS74 KEPZ 170216
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR FT BLISS 2...STATE OF NEW MEXICO FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
816 PM MDT WED JUN 16 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1917 MDT ON JUNE 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT...AND PROBABLY TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL BE WITH THE
TIMING/STRENGTH OF WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE AREA.

TONIGHTS OUTFLOW HAS MOVED INTO EAST EL PASO WITH 25-30 MPH SOUTHEAST
WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS JUMPED FROM AROUND 30F TO AROUND 50F.  TIMING
THE OUTFLOW...IT SHOULD REACH THE FIRE AREA BETWEEN 930 AND 1030 PM
EXPECT WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 MPH WHEN IT
COMES THROUGH...LASTING FOR ABOUT AN HOUR...THEN DIMINISHING BELOW 10
MPH.  WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE DAWN.

RH WILL LIKELY SPIKE TO 50-60 PERCENT IN THE SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN TOMORROW BY LATE MORNING AS THE MOIST
LAYER MIXES OUT.  MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN...A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FIRE AREA...BUT STILL REMAINING
EAST OF THE TULAROSA BASIN.  EXPECT A WIND SHIFT DUE TO OUTFLOW AGAIN
TOMORROW EVENING.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT).
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
MAX HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM...THEN
                    SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST AFTER 10 PM...BRIEFLY 15-20
                    MPH THEN DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 MPH. BECOMING LIGHT
                    AND VARIABLE AROUND DAWN.


.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-91.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-14 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    5 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.


$$
FORECASTER...HARDIMAN
REQUESTED BY...IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100616.FTBLI.01/EPZ