FNUS75 KPUB 190950
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEDANO...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
350 AM MDT SAT JUN 19 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BREAK BETWEEN 0900 AND 1000 THIS
MORNING...SO LOOK FOR A RAPID WARM-UP AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING
SOON AFTER 0900. THE STRONGER GUSTS FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY AFTER 1400...AS INTENSE
HEATING STARTS PULLING THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 2200 AS SURFACE-BASED
INVERSIONS DEVELOP AND WINDS DECOUPLE...BUT HUMIDITY RECOVERY
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN POOR. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THE WATCH FOR SUNDAY
WILL MOST LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING THIS AFTERNOON.

RECAP: INVERSION BREAKING 0900-1000

RAPID HEATING AND INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS 0900-1400

STRONGEST WINDS GUSTS 1400-1800

WINDS DIMINISHING BY 2200

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80F.
MIN HUMIDITY........3-6 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........UPSLOPE 3-7 MPH THROUGH 0900...THEN SOUTHWEST
                    WINDS 10-15 MPH THROUGH 1300...THEN SOUTHWEST
                    15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 18000 FT AGL AFTER
                    1100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 26 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52F.
MAX HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    25 MPH UNTIL 2200...THEN DOWNSLOPE 3-6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......14000 FT AGL UNTIL 2100. 1000 FT AGL AFTER
                    2200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2100...THEN GOOD UNTIL
                    2200...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82F.
MIN HUMIDITY........7-12 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........UPSLOPE 3-7 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTHWEST
                    10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 19500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 27 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. EXCELLENT AFTER 1000.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...MOORE
REQUESTED BY...MIKE LEWELLING
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100618.MEDAN.03/PUB