FNUS74 KLIX 191516 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1016 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010 .SYNOPSIS...AT 1000 CDT...FLAT PRES GRADIENT ACRS ENTIRE GLFMEX. 1020MB HIGH CNTRD NR 28N/90W. WK 1018MB TROF ORIENTED E-W FM CHAND ISL TO S OF KAQQ...STNRY. SCT TSTMS ASSOCD WITH TROF NR MOUTH OF MS RVR. SFC PRES AT SPILL LOCATION...1019MB. .HEAT INDEX READINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS... AT 1000 CDT... BOOTHVILLE ASOS /KBVE/... 94F HOUMA AWOS /KHUM/...104F GALLIANO AWOS /KGAO/...103F SLIDELL ASOS /KASD/... 98F WEST DELTA AWOS-3 /DLP/... 92F RIG INDEPENDENCE AWOS /IPN/...102F GULFPORT ASOS /KGPT/...102F .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS...LCL AFTN PULSE SVR PSBL MAINLY OVER LAND AREAS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS...LCL AFTN PULSE SVR PSBL MAINLY OVER LAND AREAS. ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 13Z RUC40 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... NW 9KT 250FT... NW 10KT 500FT... NW 10KT 1KFT... NW 11KT 2KFT... NW 12KT 3KFT... N 8KT 4KFT...NNE 5KT 5KFT...ENE 4KT MAX WIND...040/21KT 32.7KFT. DRY LAPSE TO 3700FT...NEUTRAL LAPSE TO 5200FT...DRY LAPSE TO 12.7KFT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. INV-V TO 3C DEP AT 950MB/1900FT...V-DRY TO 800MB/6700FT...CONV CURVES TO SATURATION AT 600MB...MOIST ABV. P.W. 2.16 IN. LI -7.2 SBCAPE 3153 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 045/4KT. 19/06Z NAM12 MODEL SNDG AT SPOT LOCATION VALID 18Z SUN 06/20/10 SFC... E 8KT 250FT... E 8KT 500FT... E 8KT 1KFT... E 8KT 2KFT... E 9KT 3KFT...ENE 11KT 4KFT... NE 12KT 5KFT... NE 14KT MAX WIND...027/22KT 31.9KFT. DRY LAPSE TO 2KFT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. INV-V TO 1C DEP AT 865MB/2100FT...V-DRY ABV 865MB/2100FT. P.W. 1.85". LI -2.9. SBCAPE 1164 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 073/9KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 191451Z AUTO 22006KT 10SM CLR 30/23 A3012 RMK AO2 SLP197 T03000233 51012 TSNO $ METAR KGAO 191503Z AUTO 31005KT VCTS SCT022 BKN030 BKN049 31/26 A3010 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NE S AND SW METAR KHSA 191450Z 28004KT 10SM CLR 31/26 A3009 METAR KIPN 191455Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 33/24 A3011 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 191440Z AUTO A3010 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 191340Z AUTO 27004KT 10SM 30/25 A3009 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 191340Z AUTO 31007KT 10SM CLR 31/24 A3012 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 191455Z AUTO VRB06KT 10SM CLR 30/22 A3011 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT020-030. AFT 16Z VFR SCT035...SCT 2-3SM TSRA BKN025CB G40KT TOP 450 TIL 00Z. AFT 02Z...VFR CAVOK. AFT 09Z VFR SCT020...LCL MVFR 4-6SM BR BKN020. MARINE AREAS...MVFR SCT-BKN025-030 BKN100...SCT TSRA BKN022CB G35KT TOP 400. KHUM 191130Z 1912/2012 33005KT P6SM SCT030 FM191700 21006KT P6SM SCT035 TEMPO 1920/1923 3SM -TSRA SCT025CB BKN035 FM200100 VRB03KT P6SM FEW040 SCT250 FM200600 VRB04KT P6SM SCT250 KHSA 191226Z 1912/2012 VRB04KT P6SM SCT030 TEMPO 1912/1914 5SM HZ FM191700 21005KT P6SM SCT035 TEMPO 1920/1923 3SM -TSRA SCT028CB BKN035 FM200100 VRB03KT P6SM FEW045 SCT080 BKN250 FM200600 VRB04KT P6SM SCT250= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUN...MVFR SCT-BKN025. SCT TSRA. LGT N WND AM...LGT E WND PM. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MON...MVFR SCT-BKN025. SCT TSRA. LGT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUE...MVFR BKN025. SCT TSRA. LGT SE WND. .RADAR... AT 1000 CDT...A LARGE AREA OF STG TSTMS XTNDD FM 82NM NW...NR UPR CHAN ISLS...ACRS MS RVR DELTA TO 82NM SW INTO LWR EWINGS BANKS...MOVG SW 10KT. G33-39KT XPCTD THESE CELLS. LGT/MDT RAFL OVR SPILL LOCATION. CLOSEST LGTNG...56NM WNW OF SPILL LOCATION. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.02 FT AT 0954 CDT FALLING...LOW TIDE 0.74 FT AT 1600 CDT. WYCM6 1.42 FT AT 0954 CDT FALLING...LOW TIDE 0.96 FT AT 2000 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 88.0F .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........45 45 61 61 61 61 61 61 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............86 87 88 88 88 88 88 88 RH..............70 70 68 66 66 66 66 64 HEAT INDEX (F)..95 96 98 99 100 100 100 99 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 MIX HGT (KM)....0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.N N NE NE NE N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 7 5 5 5 3 3 TRANS SPD (M/S).3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 40 20 20 20 20 20 CEILINGS........B22............................ SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......SM SM SM SM SM SM SM SM .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........61 46 46 46 52 52 WEATHER COV.....S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............88 87 85 84 83 83 RH..............62 63 68 71 74 74 HEAT INDEX (F)..97 94 94 91 90 90 20 FT WIND......N 3 NW 2 W 2 W 2 W 3 W 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....2700 2700 2600 2600 2500 2400 MIX HGT (M).....820 820 790 790 760 730 TRANSPORT WIND..N 3 N 1 S 2 S 2 SW 5 W 5 TRAN WIND (M/S).N 1 N 0 S 1 S 1 SW 2 W 2 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 10 10 10 SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......SM SM SM SM SM SM .SUNDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........52 68 68 68 77 77 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............83 84 85 86 88 89 RH..............72 70 67 65 59 57 HEAT INDEX (F)..89 90 92 93 95 96 20 FT WIND......NW 2 NW 4 N 6 NE 6 NE 5 E 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2400 2600 2700 2700 2900 2900 MIX HGT (M).....730 790 820 820 880 880 TRANSPORT WIND..W 5 NE 5 W 5 W 5 NE 1 SW 1 TRAN WIND (M/S).W 2 NE 2 W 2 W 2 NE 0 SW 0 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 20 20 20 SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......SM SM LC LC LC LC .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .TUESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...RICKS REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100619.DEEPW.06/LIX