FNUS74 KLIX 201916 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 216 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010 AT 1400 CDT...1018MB HIGH PRES CNTRD NR 27N/90W...RDGG TO CNTRL FL CST. TROF OF LOW PRES ALG GA ATLC CST INTO APALACHEE BAY. WK 1017MB TROF ORIENTED E-W FM SE LA TO APALACHEE BAY...STNRY. SQLN MAY DEVLP ALG TROF FEATURES AND IMPACT OPS AREA LT TNGT. SFC PRES AT SPILL LOCATION...1017MB. A FEW LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TO SEVERE SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE SPILL OPERATIONS AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE THUNDERTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER SW GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT ORGANIZES AND MOVES SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE SPILL LOCATION AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO DEVELOP...SQUALL GUSTS 40-45 KT...LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RESULT FOR AN HOUR DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SQUALL LINE. .HEAT INDEX READINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS... AT 1400 CDT... BOOTHVILLE ASOS /KBVE/...104F HOUMA AWOS /KHUM/...102F GALLIANO AWOS /KGAO/...102F SLIDELL ASOS /KASD/...101F WEST DELTA AWOS-3 /DLP/...100F RIG INDEPENDENCE AWOS /IPN/... 97F GULFPORT ASOS /KGPT/...102F .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS...LCL AFTN PULS SVR PSBL...5% CHC DMGG WNDS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS...LCL AFTN PULSE SVR PSBL MAINLY OVER LAND AREAS. ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY... .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 18Z RUC40 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... NE 8KT 250FT... NE 8KT 500FT... NE 9KT 1KFT... NE 10KT 2KFT... NE 8KT 3KFT... NE 10KT 4KFT... NE 11KT 5KFT... NE 11KT MAX WIND...351/20KT 46.9KFT. DRY LAPSE TO 3700FT...NEUTRAL LAPSE TO 5300FT...COND STABLE LAPSE TO 14.9KFT...WARM LAPSE TO 18.0KFT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. V-DRY GT 6C DEP TO 650MB...CONV CURVES AT 600MB...1C DEP ABV 600MB/14.9KFT. P.W. 1.92 IN. LI -4.3 SBCAPE 1160 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 062/7KT. 20/06Z NAM12 MODEL SNDG AT SPOT LOCATION VALID 18Z MON 06/21/10 SFC... NE 9KT 250FT...ENE 9KT 500FT... NE 10KT 1KFT... NE 10KT 2KFT... NE 10KT 3KFT... E 12KT 4KFT... E 12KT 5KFT... E 13KT MAX WIND...066/20KT 7.9KFT. DRY LAPSE TO 1900FT...NEUTRAL LAPSE TO 2900FT...COND STABLE TO 16.1KFT...WARM LAPSE TO 18.2KFT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. INV-V TO 3C DEP SFC TO 950MB/1900FT...V-DRY TO 775MB/7600FT...CONV CURVES TO 4C DEP AT 680MB...4C DEP OR GRTR ABV. P.W. 1.89 IN. LI -2.0. SBCAPE 1030 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 095/10KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 201851Z AUTO 05006KT 10SM CLR 32/26 A3003 RMK AO2 SLP167 T03220256 TSNO METAR KGAO 201903Z AUTO 05003KT CLR 33/24 A3002 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S PWINO METAR KHSA 201850Z 00000KT 10SM CLR 33/20 A3001 METAR KIPN 201855Z AUTO 03003KT 10SM CLR 32/22 A3002 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 201855Z AUTO 03008KT 10SM CLR 30/24 A3000 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 201855Z AUTO 05007KT 10SM 33/25 A3002 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 201855Z AUTO 03004KT 10SM CLR 30/25 A3003 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 201855Z AUTO 04007KT 10SM FEW024 FEW034 FEW043 31/25 A3001 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR FEW080. AFT 19Z...VFR SCT035 BKN080 ISOLD 2SM TSRA BKN025CB G35KT TOP 450 TIL 00Z. AFT 02Z VFR CAVOK... LCL MVFR 4-6SM BR BKN020 BTWN 09Z-14Z. AFT 10Z...CHC 1SM TSRA BKN015CB Q35-40KT TOP 450 LWR PLAQ PRSH. MARINE AREAS...VFR SCT030 BKN100. S OF 27N/E OF 90W...SCT 2SM TSRA BKN020CB G30KT TOP 400. AFT 09Z...CHC 1SM +TSRA BKN015CB Q35KT TOP 450 MOVG SW FM W FL/S AL CST. KHUM 201722Z 2018/2118 VRB05KT P6SM SCT030CB FM210100 VRB03KT P6SM FEW030 TEMPO 2110/2113 5SM BR FM211600 07005KT P6SM SCT030 KHSA 201722Z 2018/2118 19005KT P6SM SCT035CB FM210100 VRB03KT P6SM FEW030= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MON...MVFR SCT-BKN025. SCT TSRA. LGT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUE...MVFR SCT-BKN025. SCT TSRA. LGT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WED...MVFR BKN025. ISOLD TSRA. LGT E WND. .RADAR... AT 1400 CDT...NO TSTMS WITHIN 100NM OF SPILL LOCATION. CLOSEST LGTNG...110NM NW NR PORT FOURCHON. CHC SQLN TSTMS ARND 0600 CDT MON. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 0.68 FT AT 1334 CDT FALLING...LOW TIDE 0.49 FT AT 1600 CDT. WYCM6 0.95 FT AT 1341 CDT FALLING...LOW TIDE 0.42 FT AT 1900 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 90.5F. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........64 64 64 64 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............87 87 87 87 RH..............68 65 65 70 HEAT INDEX (F)..95 95 95 95 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 MIX HGT (KM)....1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.NE E E E TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 8 8 TRANS SPD (M/S).4 4 4 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 CEILINGS........S25 S80 S80 S80 SEAS............1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......SM LC LC LC .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........64 41 41 41 39 39 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............86 86 85 84 84 84 RH..............70 70 72 74 74 74 HEAT INDEX (F)..95 95 94 92 92 92 20 FT WIND......E 5 SE 5 S 5 SW 5 S 5 SE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....3300 2900 2800 2800 2700 2700 MIX HGT (M).....1010 880 850 850 820 820 TRANSPORT WIND..E 8 E 8 SE 7 SE 7 S 7 SE 7 TRAN WIND (M/S).E 4 E 4 SE 3 SE 3 S 3 SE 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......LC LC LC LC LC LC .MONDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........39 59 59 59 68 68 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............84 84 84 85 86 88 RH..............74 74 72 67 67 65 HEAT INDEX (F)..92 92 91 92 94 99 20 FT WIND......E 5 E 5 E 5 E 5 SE 5 SE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2700 2700 3400 3400 4100 4100 MIX HGT (M).....820 820 1040 1040 1250 1250 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 7 E 7 E 8 E 8 SE 8 SE 8 TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 3 E 3 E 4 E 4 SE 4 SE 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 20 20 20 20 SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......LC SM SM SM SM SM .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .WEDNESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. EAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .THURSDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. EAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...RICKS REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100620.DEEPW.10/LIX