FNUS74 KLIX 202317 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 617 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. AT 1800 CDT...1017MB HIGH PRES CNTRD NR 27N/91W...RDGG TO SOUTH FL. TROF OF LOW PRES ALG GA ATLC CST INTO APALACHEE BAY. 1014MB LOW LOCATED OVER SW GA WITH WEAK 1015 TROF ORIENTED E-W THROUGH NORTHERN GULF/SE LA...STNRY. SQLN ANTCPTD TO DEVLP ALG TROF FEATURES LTR THIS EVE AND IMPACT OPS AREA LT TNGT. SFC PRES AT SPILL LOCATION...1015MB. A FEW LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TO SEVERE SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE SPILL OPERATIONS AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE THUNDERTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER SW GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT ORGANIZES AND MOVES SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE SPILL LOCATION AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO DEVELOP...SQUALL GUSTS 40-45 KT...LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RESULT FOR AN HOUR DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SQUALL LINE. .HEAT INDEX READINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS... AT 1800 CDT... BOOTHVILLE ASOS /KBVE/... 99F HOUMA AWOS /KHUM/...102F GALLIANO AWOS /KGAO/... 98F SLIDELL ASOS /KASD/...105F WEST DELTA AWOS-3 /DLP/...100F RIG INDEPENDENCE AWOS /IPN/...100F GULFPORT ASOS /KGPT/...103F .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS...LCL AFTN PULSE SVR PSBL...5% CHC DMGG WNDS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL TSTMS...LCL AFTN PULSE SVR PSBL MAINLY OVER LAND AREAS. ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY... .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 23Z RUC40 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... NE 4KT 250FT... NE 4KT 500FT... NE 4KT 1KFT... NE 4KT 2KFT...NNE 10KT 3KFT...NNE 10KT 4KFT... N 8KT 5KFT... N 8KT MAX WIND...354/21KT 17.6KFT. DRY LAPSE TO 3500FT...NEUTRAL LAPSE TO 6700FT...PSEUDO LAPSE TO 16.6 KFT WITH SECOND INVERSION TO 19.6 KFT. PSEUDO LAPSE ABOVE. GREATER THAN 5 DEG C DEP THROGH COLUMN. P.W. 1.50 IN. LI -1.9 SBCAPE 877 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 058/6KT. 20/18Z NAM12 MODEL SNDG AT SPOT LOCATION VALID 18Z MON 06/21/10 SFC...ENE 7KT 250FT...ENE 7KT 500FT...ENE 7KT 1KFT...ENE 7KT 2KFT...ENE 7KT 3KFT... E 4KT 4KFT... E 2KT 5KFT...ENE 3KT MAX WIND...054/15KT 11.6KFT. DRY LAPSE TO 1800FT...PSEUDO ABV. INV-V TO 3C DEP SFC TO 950MB/1900FT...V-DRY TO 925MB/2900FT...4C DEP OR LESS ABV. P.W. 1.99 IN. LI -2.6. SBCAPE 910 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 092/06KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 202251Z AUTO 07004KT 9SM CLR 31/24 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP151 T03110244 TSNO METAR KGAO 202303Z AUTO 08003KT CLR 32/24 A2998 RMK AO2 PWINO METAR KHSA 202251Z 19005KT 10SM SCT050 33/23 A2995 METAR KIPN 202255Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 32/24 A2998 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 202255Z AUTO VRB04KT 10SM SCT028 SCT041 BKN055 31/25 A2996 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 202255Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM 31/25 A2997 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 202255Z AUTO 06005KT 10SM CLR 31/26 A2999 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 202255Z AUTO 07008KT 10SM SCT027 31/25 A2997 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT035 BKN080 ISOLD 2SM TSRA BKN025CB G35KT TOP 450 TIL 00Z. AFT 02Z VFR CAVOK...LCL MVFR 4-6SM BR BKN020 BTWN 09Z-14Z. AFT 10Z...CHC 1SM TSRA BKN015CB Q35-40KT TOP 450 LWR PLAQ/ST BERNARD PRSHS. MARINE AREAS...VFR SCT030 BKN100. S OF 27N/E OF 90W...SCT 2SM TSRA BKN020CB G30KT TOP 400. AFT 09Z...CHC 1SM +TSRA BKN015CB Q35KT TOP 450 MOVG SW FM W FL/S AL CST. KHUM 201722Z 2018/2118 VRB05KT P6SM SCT030CB FM210100 VRB03KT P6SM FEW030 TEMPO 2110/2113 5SM BR FM211600 07005KT P6SM SCT030 KHSA 201722Z 2018/2118 19005KT P6SM SCT035CB FM210100 VRB03KT P6SM FEW030= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MON...MVFR SCT-BKN025. SCT TSRA. LGT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUE...MVFR SCT-BKN025. SCT TSRA. LGT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WED...MVFR BKN025. ISOLD TSRA. LGT E WND. .RADAR... AT 1800 CDT...ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS MAINLY W AND SW OF SPILL SITE...DRIFTING SW 8KT. ONLY A FEW LGTNG STRIKES WITH THESE CELLS. NO ECHOES N OF SPILL LOCATION. CLOSEST LGTNG...45NM SW. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 0.64 FT AT 1836 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.70 FT AT 0600 CDT. WYCM6 0.73 FT AT 1836 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.95 FT AT 0815 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: MISG. .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........64 45 45 45 45 45 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............86 86 85 84 84 84 RH..............70 70 72 74 74 74 HEAT INDEX (F)..95 95 94 92 92 92 20 FT WIND......E 5 SE 5 S 5 SW 5 S 5 SE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....3300 2900 2800 2800 2700 2700 MIX HGT (M).....1010 880 850 850 820 820 TRANSPORT WIND..E 8 E 8 SE 7 SE 7 S 7 SE 7 TRAN WIND (M/S).E 4 E 4 SE 3 SE 3 S 3 SE 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 20 20 20 20 CEILINGS........S25 S25 S25 S25 S25 S25 SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......LC LC LC LC LC LC .MONDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........45 59 59 59 68 68 WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............84 84 84 85 86 88 RH..............74 74 72 67 67 65 HEAT INDEX (F)..92 92 91 92 94 99 20 FT WIND......E 5 E 5 E 5 E 5 SE 5 SE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2700 2700 3400 3400 4100 4100 MIX HGT (M).....820 820 1040 1040 1250 1250 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 7 E 7 E 8 E 8 SE 8 SE 8 TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 3 E 3 E 4 E 4 SE 4 SE 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 40 40 40 40 40 SEAS............1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......LC LC LC LC LC LC $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...MIKE EFFERSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100620.DEEPW.14/LIX