FNUS75 KPUB 211102
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEDANO...USNPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
502 AM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...FROM OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERY HAS BEEN POOR ONCE AGAIN.  SO...IT WON'T TAKE MUCH AND THE
BURN SITE WILL BE RIGHT BACK INTO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
TODAY.  WEATHER SEEN TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH WINDS
SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY.  APPARENTLY...BLACK MOUNTAIN RAWS
CARRIED A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THAN YOU EXPERIENCED AT YOUR
OBSERVATION POINT WHERE THE WINDS WERE MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  A LOOK
AT THE BROAD SCALE TOPOGRAPHY SUGGESTS THAT THE TERRAIN MAY BE TURNING
THE WINDS TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS THEY FUNNEL THROUGH
MEDANO PASS.  SO...WITH SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY...
WOULD EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR AGAIN.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A POSSIBLE
SURGE OF COOLER...HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH COULD BRING AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80F.
MIN HUMIDITY........6-11 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-8 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    TRANSITIONING OVER TO NORTHWEST 13-17 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH AFTER 1100.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 500 FEET AGL UNTIL 0700. RISING TO
                    13500 FT AGL AFTER 0800.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 27 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1000.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52F.
MAX HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11500 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 500 FT AGL AFTER 2400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 0300.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
                    AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80F.
MIN HUMIDITY........6-11 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-8 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    TRANSITIONING OVER TO NORTHWEST 13-17 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN RISING TO 13000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 27 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100620.MEDAN.04/PUB