FNUS75 KPUB 221104
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEDANO...USNPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
504 AM MDT TUE JUN 22 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE BURN AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.
HOT AND DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JETSTREAM OVER
THE AREA WILL REACH THE SURFACE BY AFTERNOON...CREATING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 GUSTING TO 35 MPH...SINGLE
DIGIT RHS AND HAINES VALUES OF 5 AND 6. COUPLED WITH THE DRY FUELS
THAT ARE IN PLACE...THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH AND RAPID RATES OF FIRE SPREAD.

REGARDING THE WIND FORECAST...OBSERVATIONS ON SITE INDICATE A
WEST TO NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE WIND AT TIMES.  THIS BEHAVIOR
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS.

WINDS WILL DECREASE AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
-FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE THE HIGH
FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE BURN AREA.  HOWEVER DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82F.
MIN HUMIDITY........5-10 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 GUSTING TO 18 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    TRANSITIONING OVER TO SOUTHWEST 13-17 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO AROUND 35 MPH BY 1100.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 500 FEET AGL UNTIL 0700. RISING TO 14000 FT AGL
                    AFTER 0800.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 32 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1000.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51F.
MAX HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST WINDS 13-17 GUSTING TO 35 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 500 FT AGL AFTER 2400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH BY 2100.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2100. POOR AFTER 0500.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40 PERCENT). AN ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80F.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-13 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-8 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHEAST 8-12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. RISING TO 13500 FT AGL
                    AFTER 1100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. VERY GOOD AFTER 1100.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100621.MEDAN.02/PUB