FNUS75 KPUB 221043
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR PARKDALE CANYON...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
443 AM MDT TUE JUN 22 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE BURN AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.
HOT AND DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JETSTREAM OVER
THE AREA WILL REACH THE SURFACE BY AFTERNOON...CREATING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 30 GUSTING TO 40 MPH...SINGLE
DIGIT RHS AND HAINES VALUES OF 5 AND 6. COUPLED WITH THE DRY FUELS
THAT ARE IN PLACE...THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH AND RAPID RATES OF FIRE SPREAD.

REGARDING THE WIND FORECAST...OBSERVATIONS ON SITE INDICATE THE
WIND WAS MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY YESTERDAY...BUT TURNED SOUTHEASTERLY
AT TIMES.  WITH TODAY'S PATTERN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S...THIS
BEHAVIOR CAN LIKELY BE EXPECTED AGAIN.  A LOOK AT THE TERRAIN
IN THE AREA OF THE FIRE SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT
MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT MAY GET CHANNELED UP THE RIVER VALLEY FROM
-TIME TO TIME...CREATING A SOUTHEAST WIND OVER PARTS OF THE FIRE
AT TIMES.

WINDS WILL DECREASE AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
-FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE THE HIGH
FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE BURN AREA.  HOWEVER DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....92-97F.
MIN HUMIDITY........2-7 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-8 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    TRANSITIONING OVER TO SOUTHWEST 17-22 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH BY 1100.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 500 FEET AGL UNTIL 0700. 16000 FT AGL
                    AFTER 1100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53F.
MAX HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST WINDS 17-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40
                    MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 11 MPH
                    UNTIL 2400...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12000 FT AGL UNTIL 2100. 1000 FT AGL AFTER
                    2300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2100. POOR AFTER 0500.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY SUNNY (50 PERCENT).
                    AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90F.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-8 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN RISING TO 12500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. VERY GOOD AFTER 1100.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...DISPATCHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100622.PARKD.01/PUB