FNUS72 KMFL 231405 FWSMFL SPOT FORECAST FOR ALLEY RX BURN...DOF/JEFF CUMMINGS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1005 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DISCUSSION...NOTE: SATURDAY 6/26/10 IS NOT IN THE FORECAST TABLES BELOW FOR THE DUNCAN AND ALLEY BURN AS THE COMPUTER IS SET FOR FOUR 12 HOUR PERIODS AND SINCE WE ARE ALREADY 24 HOURS OUT...THE COMPUTER CUTS OFF AT 48 HOURS. THE SECOND PARAGRAPH BELOW CAN APPLY TO THE DUNCAN BURN AS WELL AS I HAVE INCLUDED A SATURDAY OUTLOOK, WHICH I FORGOT IN THE DUNCAN SPOT FORECAST. DISCUSSION...THE NEXT 2 DAYS WILL HAVE A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THAT IS, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY APPROACHING EASTERN CUBA...MOVING WEST THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE DUE SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW STRONG EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AT ALL ON THE WEST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ONLY 20 PERCENT. WITH THE STRONG WINDS...UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT MAY BE HAMPERED AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF COLLIER COUNTY AND WILL NOT BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTERNOON...NOT AS EARLY AS 9 AM IN THE FORECAST BELOW. THOUGH NOT IN THE FORECAST...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY BE WETTER AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. IF IT DOES, THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND PULL SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE CARIBBEAN NORTH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PULL AWAY TO THE WEST ENOUGH THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY EASE ENOUGH THAT A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SEEING THAT THIS IS 24 HOURS OUT...AND BASED A LOT UPON MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...THIS FORECAST MAY CHANGE QUITE A BIT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR PLANNED IGNITION TIME OF 6/24/10 1100 AM EDT 06/23/10 ___________________________________________________________________ FORECAST FOR THURSDAY TIME(EDT) 9AM NOON 3PM 6PM ___________________________________________________________________ SKY.................. PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY WX................... TSRA TSRA TSRA TSRA CHANCE OF PRECIP (%). 20 20 20 20 TEMP (F)............. 82 92 93 89 DEW PT (F)........... 74 74 73 73 RH (%)............... 77 56 53 58 20 FT WIND (MPH)..... NE-4 E-8 E-10G16 NE-10G16 MIXING HGT (FT, AGL). 2200 3300 5000 5000 TRANSPORT WIND (MPH). NE-8 E-11 E-16 NE-16 LAL.................. 2 2 2 2 LDSI................. 26 41 64 64 LVORI................ 6 4 1 1 ___________________________________________________________________ OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ___________________________________________________________________ SKY.................... PARTLY CLOUDY. WX..................... A CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. POP(%)................. 20 MIN TEMPERATURE (F).... 75 MAX DEW PT (F)......... 75 MAX RH (%)............. 92 AVG 20FT WIND (MPH).... NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. MIN LDSI............... 4 MAX LVORI.............. 9 ___________________________________________________________________ OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ___________________________________________________________________ SKY.................... MOSTLY SUNNY. WX..................... SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. POP(%)................. 40 MAX TEMPERATURE (F).... 94 MIN DEW PT (F)......... 76 MIN RH (%)............. 53 AVG 20FT WIND (MPH).... EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. AVG TRANS WIND (MPH)... NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 15 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX LDSI............... 57 MIXING HGT (FT, AGL)... 5000 NO WX = NO WEATHER MOCLR = MOSTLY CLEAR SHRA = SHOWERS PTCLDY = PARTLY CLOUDY TSRA = THUNDERSTORMS MOCLDY = MOSTLY CLOUDY CLR = CLEAR CLDY = CLOUDY $$