FNAK79 PAFG 301330
FWSAFG

SPOT FORECAST FOR FIRE 501 PAT CREEK...ALASKA FIRE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
530 AM AKDT WED JUN 30 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2326 AKDT ON JUNE 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A THERMAL TROUGH LIES EAST-WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
THIS MORNING WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING AMBLER-BETTLES-
FORT YUKON-EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE TROUGH POSITION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THE
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND WET THUNDERSTORMS IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CLOSE
TO THE FIRE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO THE THERMAL
TROUGH. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS BEING CLOSE TO THE FIRE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE WIND DIRECTION MAY BE VARIABLE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 TO 45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST TO SOUTHWEST 4-6 MPH INCREASING TO 6-10
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 7500 FT AGL BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 5-8 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST TO SOUTHWEST 6-10 MPH DIMINISHING TO 2-5 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 500 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 2-5 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND WET THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 0-2 MPH IN THE MORNING. VARIABLE
                    MAINLY WEST 3-6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 8000 FT AGL BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........VARIABLE 3-7 MPH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. VARIABLE MAINLY WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S. VARIABLE MAINLY NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...FISCHER
REQUESTED BY...GABE MASON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100629.FIRE5.02/AFG