FNUS75 KGJT 291851
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR WATER CREEK...FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1251 PM MDT TUE JUN 29 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1205 MDT ON JUNE 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH SHIFTED ONTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CARRY DEEPER MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF LATE-DAY
STORMS. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH ACTIVITY BEGINNING JUST A
LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY. ALSO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

.TODAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING CLOUDS (30-40% BY 1400) BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER 1800 (60-70%). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY
                    1600...INCREASING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE
                    AFTERNOON WINDS MAY BE DOMINATED BY OUTFLOW
                    WINDS FROM CONVECTION THAT COULD BE QUITE
                    DISTANT FROM THE FIRE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 9300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 MPH.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........DECREASING CLOUDS...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
                    (30-40%) BY MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........63-68%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-3 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%) IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-88 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE
                    AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS MAY BE DOMINATED BY
                    OUTFLOW WINDS FROM CONVECTION AT SOME
                    DISTANCE FROM THE BURN SITE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....IMPROVING TO FAIR AFTER 1000...AND GOOD IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 11 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...TRACY FIFAREK
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100629.WATER.01/GJT