FNUS74 KLIX 291514 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1014 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010 .SYNOPSIS... AT 1000 CDT...1016MB HIGH PRES CNTRD OVER AL. TS ALEX CNTRD NR 22.7N/93.1W AT 1000 CDT...MOVG NW 10KT. MAX WNDS 60KT. CNTRL PRES 982MB. SFC PRES AT SPILL LOCATION...1014MB. OCNL TROPICAL SQUALL BANDS DEVELPG AND MOVG ACRS N GLFMEX...PRODUCING NR GALE FORCE GUSTS. .HEAT INDEX READINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS... AT 1000 CDT... BOOTHVILLE ASOS /KBVE/... 89F HOUMA AWOS /KHUM/... 96F GALLIANO AWOS /KGAO/... 94F SLIDELL ASOS /KASD/... 79F WEST DELTA AWOS-3 /DLP/... 94F RIG INDEPENDENCE AWOS /IPN/...UNREP GULFPORT ASOS /KGPT/... 85F .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON-SVR TSTMS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON-SVR TSTMS. ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * TIDES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL FROM A PROLONGED SOUTHEAST FETCH COMING INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW WATER TO PILE ALONG THE COAST WITH TIDES TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT WEDNESDAY... ...TROPICAL SHOWERS TO PRODUCE NEAR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TODAY... SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS BUT EXTENDING WELL INTO THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE INDIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH. * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT WIND GUSTS 25 TO 33 KNOTS OVER OPEN WATERS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. WATERSPOUTS MAY ALSO DEVELOP UNDER SOME OF THESE SHOWERS. * IN ADDITION...A PRONOUNCED SWELL TRAIN PRODUCED BY TROPICAL STORM ALEX CONTINUES TO ROLL INTO THE SHOALING AREAS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE ADDITION OF SQUALL GUSTS CAN PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVES THAT CAN CAPSIZE SMALL VESSELS OPERATING IN SHALLOW WATERS. * MARINERS AND OPERATORS INVOLVED WITH OIL SPILL CLEAN UP OPERATIONS SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF SUDDEN SQUALL GUSTS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS DURING PASSAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ENSURE ALL ON BOARD ARE ALWAYS WEARING APPROVED PERSONAL FLOTATION DEVICES. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 14Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... E 19KT 250FT... E 17KT 500FT... E 16KT 1KFT.. E 16KT 2KFT... SE 20KT 3KFT... SE 22KT 4KFT... SE 25KT 5KFT... SE 26KT MAX WIND...126/26KT 4600FT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 2100FT...NEUTRAL LAPSE TO 15.6KFT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. INV-V SFC TO 2C DEP AT 950MB/1800FT...V-DRY TO 700MB...CONVG CURVES TO SATURATION AT 580MB...SLGT V-DRY ABV 500MB. P.W. 2.08 IN. LI -4.9. SBCAPE 2297 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 173/10KT. 29/12Z NAM12 MODEL SNDG AT SPOT LOCATION VALID 18Z WED 06/30/10 SFC... SE 21KT 250FT... SE 23KT 500FT... SE 25KT 1KFT... SE 25KT 2KFT... SE 26KT 3KFT... SE 28KT 4KFT...SSE 29KT 5KFT...SSE 29KT MAX WIND...158/29KT 3500FT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 2600FT...NEUTRAL LAPSE TO 16.8KFT...WARM LAYER TO 19.1KFT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. INV-V SFC TO 925MB/2600FT...2-3C DEP ENTIRE SNDG ABV 925MB. P.W. 2.45 IN. LI -2.4. SBCAPE 814 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 181/15KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 291451Z AUTO 10009KT 10SM SCT085 28/23 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP138 T02830233 53007 TSNO METAR KGAO 291500Z AUTO 08006KT BKN024 BKN031 28/25 A2994 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW PWINO METAR KHSA 291450Z 15007KT 5SM -RA SCT015 BKN040 OVC050 24/24 A2997 METAR KIPN 291455Z AUTO 11024KT 10SM CLR 42/37 A2991 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 291455Z AUTO 12024G32KT 7SM CLR 29/25 A2986 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 291455Z AUTO 13017G26KT 10SM CLR 31/25 A2986 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 291455Z AUTO 12026KT 7SM CLR 30/24 A2990 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 291455Z AUTO 11023KT 9SM FEW075 SCT100 29/25 A2991 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...MVFR BKN025TCU..SCT 1SM +TSRA BKN018CB G30KT TOP 400. AFT 17Z VFR SCT032 BKN080...SCT TSRA BKN025CB G35KT TOP 450. MARINE AREAS...MVFR BKN022-028...SCT 1SM +TSRA BKN015CB G30KT TOP 450. KHUM 291457Z 2915/3012 09012KT P6SM VCTS SCT020CB BKN050 TEMPO 2915/2918 5SM SHRA BR BKN015CB FM300200 11005KT P6SM SCT020 BKN030 KHSA 291314Z 2913/3012 VRB03KT P6SM VCSH SCT025CB TEMPO 2913/2917 VRB15G25KT 2SM TSRA BKN015CB OVC035 FM300100 09005KT P6SM SCT020 BKN030= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR WED...MVFR SCT-BKN030. SCT TSRA. MDT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THU...MVFR BKN030. SCT TSRA. MDT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRI...MVFR BKN030. SCT SHRA/TSRA. MDT SE WND. .RADAR... AT 1000 CDT...AN AREA OF TROPICAL SHWRS WAS XPNDG IN COVERG 30-150NM SW OF SPILL LOCATION...MOVG N 11KT. G28-33KT LKLY ALG THIS BAND OF SHWRS. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 2.27 FT AT 0948 CDT RISING NR HIGH TIDE. WYCM6 2.76 FT AT 0954 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 3.08 FT AT 1400 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 85.6FT AT 1000 CDT. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........98 99 99 97 92 87 85 85 WEATHER COV.....WID WID WID NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............83 83 82 83 83 84 84 84 RH..............74 77 77 77 77 77 74 74 HEAT INDEX (F)..90 90 90 90 92 92 92 92 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 20 FT WIND GUST.35 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.7 MIX HGT (KM)....0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.15 15 16 16 16 20 20 20 TRANS SPD (M/S).7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 CHC OF PCPN (%).80 80 80 60 60 60 60 60 CEILINGS........B25........................... SEAS............5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 SEA STATE.......VRO VRO VRO VRO VRO VRO VRO VRO .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........85 90 90 90 85 85 WEATHER COV.....NUMRUS LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............84 84 83 84 83 82 RH..............74 74 77 75 78 81 HEAT INDEX (F)..92 92 90 92 90 89 20 FT WIND......SE 15 SE 15 SE 15 SE 15 SE 15 SE 14 20 FT WIND GUST.30 30 30 30 30 30 MIX HGT (FT)....2700 2800 2800 2800 2900 3100 MIX HGT (M).....820 850 850 850 880 940 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 20 SE 20 SE 16 SE 16 SE 16 SE 18 TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 9 SE 9 SE 7 SE 7 SE 7 SE 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 70 70 70 70 70 SEAS............7 7 7 7 8 8 SEA STATE.......VRO VRO VRO VRO VRO RO .WEDNESDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........85 97 97 97 90 90 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............82 82 84 84 84 85 RH..............82 82 74 75 74 72 HEAT INDEX (F)..89 89 92 92 94 94 20 FT WIND......SE 14 SE 14 SE 14 SE 13 SE 12 SE 10 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 20 20 MIX HGT (FT)....3100 3100 3100 3100 3000 3300 MIX HGT (M).....940 940 940 940 910 1010 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 18 SE 20 SE 23 SE 23 SE 26 S 18 TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 8 SE 9 SE 10 SE 10 SE 12 S 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 60 60 60 60 60 SEAS............8 8 8 8 7 7 SEA STATE.......RO RO RO RO RO RO .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 12 MPH. .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 13 MPH. .SATURDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 14 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...RICKS REQUESTED BY...CHRIS BANNAN TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100629.DEEPW.06/LIX