FNUS74 KLIX 301018 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 518 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010 .SYNOPSIS... AT 0500 CDT...LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF HRCN ALEX XTNDG TO LA CST WITH LRG SE FETCH THRU YUCATAN CHANNEL DRAWN INTO SPILL OPS AREA. HRCN ALEX CNTRD NR 23.3N/95.1W AT 0400 CDT...MOVG WNW 6KT. MAX WNDS 70KT. CNTRL PRES 961MB. WK 1017MB HIGH OVR S GA. SFC PRES AT SPILL LOCATION...1013MB. OCNL TROPICAL SQUALL BANS DEVLPG AND MOVG ACRS N GLFMEX...PRODUCING NR GALE FORCE GUSTS AT TIMES. .HEAT INDEX READINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS... AT 0500 CDT... BOOTHVILLE ASOS /KBVE/... 93F HOUMA AWOS /KHUM/... 74F GALLIANO AWOS /KGAO/... 78F SLIDELL ASOS /KASD/... 78F WEST DELTA AWOS-3 /DLP/... 98F RIG INDEPENDENCE AWOS /IPN/...UNREP GULFPORT ASOS /KGPT/... 86F .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON-SVR TSTMS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON-SVR TSTMS. ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY. THE ONSHORE WINDS ALONG WITH WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN TIDE LEVELS RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE RISE IN TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAINLY DURING HIGH TIDE. FLOODING OF SECONDARY ROADS AND SHELL ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... * HURRICANE ALEX IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION COULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED SIX INCH AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE. * LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER POPULATED AND URBANIZED AREAS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING...SOME SEVERE...MAKING ROADS IMPASSABLE AND CAUSING FLOODING OF PARKED AND STALLED CARS. FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND SOME ROADS IN RURAL AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. RISING WATER COULD ALSO POSE A THREAT TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN LOW LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 09Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... E 20KT 250FT... E 20KT 500FT... E 21KT 1KFT.. E 21KT 2KFT... SE 24KT 3KFT... SE 24KT 4KFT... SE 23KT 5KFT... SE 23KT MAX WIND...121/24KT 2100FT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 4200FT...INVERSION TO 6600FT...NEUTRAL LAPSE TO 23.7KFT...WARM LAPSE TO 25.0KFT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. V-DRY SFC TO 900MB/3400FT...MOIST LYR AT 875MB/4200FT...V-DRY ABV. P.W. 1.87 IN. LI -6.4. SBCAPE 3006 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 155/13KT. 30/06Z NAM12 MODEL SNDG AT SPOT LOCATION VALID 18Z THU 07/01/10 SFC... SE 22KT 250FT... SE 23KT 500FT... SE 25KT 1KFT... SE 26KT 2KFT... SE 27KT 3KFT... SE 30KT 4KFT...SSE 29KT 5KFT... S 28KT MAX WIND...147/30KT 3000FT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 2300FT...NEUTRAL LAPSE TO 17.9KFT...WARM LAYER TO 19.4KFT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. NRLY SATURATED ENTIRE SNDG ABV 950MB/1800FT. P.W. 2.59 IN. LI -2.6. SBCAPE 1408 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 192/15KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 300951Z AUTO 09008KT 10SM SCT100 28/26 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP131 T02830256 TSNO METAR KGAO 300940Z AUTO 3SM +RA BKN006 OVC012 25/24 A2991 RMK AO2 P0022 LTG DSNT E THRU SW METAR KHSA 300150Z 07004KT 10SM SCT025 BKN060 27/24 A2995 METAR KIPN 300955Z AUTO 09017KT 1 1/2SM HZ SCT009 SCT030 BKN049 40/37 A2989 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 300955Z AUTO 13022G28KT 6SM HZ 29/26 A2985 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 300955Z AUTO 12010G17KT 090V150 10SM SCT017 SCT026 BKN070 31/27 A2984 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 300955Z AUTO 11021KT 10SM FEW017 SCT023 BKN035 30/27 A2989 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 300955Z AUTO 09016KT 8SM CLR 29/27 A2989 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...E OF MS RVR...VFR SCT030 OVC120...SCT TSRA BKN025CB G30KT TOP 400. W OF MS RVR...IFR OVC008 RA...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA SCT008 BKN015CB G35KT TOP 350. MARINE AREAS...VFR SCT030...SCT 1SM +SHRA BKN025CB G35KT TOP 400. KHUM 300756Z 3008/0106 08007KT P6SM VCSH SCT025 SCT100 BKN120 TEMPO 3008/3012 2SM TSRA BKN030CB BKN050 FM301200 10009KT 5SM TSRA BR BKN015CB TEMPO 3012/3016 VRB15G30KT 2SM TSRA BR BKN015CB OVC025 FM010200 08010KT P6SM SCT020 BKN080 KHSA 300535Z 3006/0106 06005KT P6SM VCSH SCT025 BKN050 OVC100 TEMPO 3006/3010 SHRA BKN035 BKN050 FM301400 14008KT 5SM TSRA BR BKN015CB TEMPO 3014/3018 VRB15G30KT 2SM TSRA BR BKN015CB OVC025 FM010200 09005KT P6SM SCT020 BKN080 AMD NOT SKED= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THU...MVFR BKN025. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA. MDT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRI...MVFR BKN025. SCT SHRA/TSRA. MDT SSE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SAT...MVFR BKN025. SCT TSRA. MDT SE WND. .RADAR... AT 0500 CDT...SCT LOW TOPPED TROPICAL SHWRS DEVLPG MAINLY W OF 89W...MOVG NW 18KT. G30KT THESE CELLS. NO LGTNG WITHIN 100NM OF SPILL LOCATION. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.57 FT AT 0432 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 2.05 FT AT 1030 CDT. WYCM6 1.79 FT AT 0438 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 2.94 FT AT 1300 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 85.5F AT 0500 CDT. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........98 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 99 99 99 99 99 WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF WID WID WID WID WID WID WID WID WID WID WID WEATHER TYPE....TSM RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............82 82 82 83 84 85 86 86 86 85 84 84 84 RH..............82 82 82 82 77 74 72 70 72 74 74 74 74 HEAT INDEX (F)..89 89 89 90 92 94 95 95 95 94 92 92 92 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..16 16 16 16 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 20 FT WIND GUST.30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 25 25 25 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 MIX HGT (KM)....0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.25 25 23 23 23 21 21 21 20 20 20 18 18 TRANS SPD (M/S).11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).80 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 CEILINGS........B25................................................ SEAS............7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 SEA STATE.......VRO VRO VRO VRO VRO VRO VRO VRO VRO VRO VRO VRO VRO .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........99 97 97 97 95 95 WEATHER COV.....WIDSPD WIDSPD WIDSPD WIDSPD WIDSPD WIDSPD WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............84 84 84 83 82 82 RH..............74 74 75 77 79 79 HEAT INDEX (F)..92 92 92 90 89 89 20 FT WIND......SE 14 SE 13 SE 13 SE 13 SE 13 S 13 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....3500 3500 3000 3000 2800 3000 MIX HGT (M).....1070 1070 910 910 850 910 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 18 SE 20 S 21 S 21 S 22 S 20 TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 8 SE 9 S 9 S 9 S 10 S 9 CHC OF PCPN (%).90 80 80 80 80 80 SEAS............7 7 7 7 7 7 SEA STATE.......VRO RO RO RO RO CH .THURSDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........95 86 86 86 90 90 WEATHER COV.....WIDSPD WIDSPD WIDSPD WIDSPD WIDSPD WIDSPD WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............82 82 84 85 85 84 RH..............79 79 74 72 72 74 HEAT INDEX (F)..89 89 92 94 94 92 20 FT WIND......S 13 S 13 S 13 S 12 S 11 S 10 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 20 20 20 MIX HGT (FT)....3000 3300 3400 3400 3500 3500 MIX HGT (M).....910 1010 1040 1040 1070 1070 TRANSPORT WIND..S 20 S 17 S 18 S 18 S 20 SW 20 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 9 S 8 S 8 S 8 S 9 SW 9 CHC OF PCPN (%).80 80 80 80 80 80 SEAS............7 6 6 6 5 5 SEA STATE.......CH CH CH CH CH CH .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 80. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .SATURDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .INDEPENDENCE DAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...RICKS REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100630.DEEPW.01/LIX