FNUS74 KLIX 301613 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1113 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010 .SYNOPSIS... AT 1100 CDT...LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF HRCN ALEX XTNDG TO LA CST WITH LRG SE SWELL TRAIN THRU YUCATAN CHANNEL DRAWN INTO SPILL OPS AREA. HRCN ALEX CNTRD NR 23.8N/95.5W AT 1000 CDT...MOVG NW 6KT. MAX WNDS 70KT. CNTRL PRES 961MB. WK 1017MB HIGH OVR S GA. SFC PRES AT SPILL LOCATION...1014MB. EXTENSIVE TROPICAL SQUALL BANDS OVER SPILL SITE AND MOVG ACRS N GLFMEX...PRODUCING NR GALE FORCE GUSTS AT TIMES AND ISOLD WSPTS. .HEAT INDEX READINGS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS... AT 1100 CDT... BOOTHVILLE ASOS /KBVE/... 80F HOUMA AWOS /KHUM/... 96F GALLIANO AWOS /KGAO/... 80F SLIDELL ASOS /KASD/... 97F WEST DELTA AWOS-3 /DLP/... 80F RIG INDEPENDENCE AWOS /IPN/...UNREP GULFPORT ASOS /KGPT/...102F .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON-SVR TSTMS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON-SVR TSTMS. ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY. THE ONSHORE WINDS ALONG WITH WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN TIDE LEVELS RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE RISE IN TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAINLY DURING HIGH TIDE. FLOODING OF SECONDARY ROADS AND SHELL ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... * HURRICANE ALEX IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION COULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED SIX INCH AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE. * LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER POPULATED AND URBANIZED AREAS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING...SOME SEVERE...MAKING ROADS IMPASSABLE AND CAUSING FLOODING OF PARKED AND STALLED CARS. FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND SOME ROADS IN RURAL AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. RISING WATER COULD ALSO POSE A THREAT TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN LOW LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS. ..THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR... BRETON SOUND OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS... COASTAL WATERS OF LA AND MS OUT 60NM... INCLUDING BARATARIA BAY...BRETON SOUND AND GRAND ISLE... * UNTIL 1045 AM CDT * AT 840 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER FROM 27 NM NORTHWEST OF GRAND ISLE TO 66 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHWEST PASS OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MOVING NORTH AT 20 KNOTS. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 15Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC... E 21KT 250FT... E 23KT 500FT... E 24KT 1KFT.. E 25KT 2KFT...ESE 25KT 3KFT... SE 26KT 4KFT... SE 27KT 5KFT... SE 27KT MAX WIND...123/25KT 2900FT. SATURATED PSEUDO SNDG. P.W. 2.78 IN. LI -4.9. SBCAPE 2010 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 149/12KT. 30/06Z NAM12 MODEL SNDG AT SPOT LOCATION VALID 18Z THU 07/01/10 SFC... SE 22KT 250FT... SE 23KT 500FT... SE 25KT 1KFT... SE 26KT 2KFT... SE 27KT 3KFT... SE 30KT 4KFT...SSE 29KT 5KFT... S 28KT MAX WIND...147/30KT 3000FT. DRY LAPSE SFC TO 2300FT...NEUTRAL LAPSE TO 17.9KFT...WARM LAYER TO 19.4KFT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABV. NRLY SATURATED ENTIRE SNDG ABV 950MB/1800FT. P.W. 2.59 IN. LI -2.6. SBCAPE 1408 J/KG. 30R75 STM MOTION 192/15KT. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W SPECI KBVE 301559Z AUTO 11008G17KT 1/2SM +RA FG FEW015 SCT022 OVC027 26/24 A3000 RMK AO2 P0029 TSNO METAR KGAO 301600Z AUTO 08010G23KT 7SM TSRA SCT007 SCT011 SCT017 26/23 A2997 RMK AO2 P0001 LTG DSNT ALQS METAR KHSA 301550Z 10010G15KT 10SM SCT018 BKN032 29/27 A2999 METAR KIPN 301555Z AUTO 11021G26KT 2 1/2SM BR FEW017 SCT042 BKN060 38/36 A2998 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 301555Z AUTO 15016G23KT 9SM SCT025 SCT034 29/25 A2992 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 301555Z AUTO 12012G29KT 080V140 1 1/2SM HZ VV007 28/25 A2991 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 301555Z AUTO 11015KT 10SM FEW042 29/25 A2997 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 301555Z AUTO 00000G10KT 4SM BR SCT013 BKN022 OVC039 26/24 A2998 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...E OF MS RVR...MVFR BKN025...SCT SHRA BKN022CB G30KT TOP 400. W OF MS RVR...IFR OVC008 +RA...SCT-NMRS +SHRA/+TSRA SCT008 BKN015CB G35KT FC/WSPTS TOP 350. MARINE AREAS...MVFR BKN022 BKN100...SCT 1SM +SHRA BKN015CB G35KT FC/WSPTS TOP 450. KHUM 301609Z 3016/0112 06009KT 6SM BR VCSH SCT015CB BKN040 FM010200 08010KT P6SM SCT020 BKN080 KHSA 301318Z 3013/0112 06005KT P6SM SCT025CB BKN100 TEMPO 3014/3018 VRB15G25KT 2SM TSRA BR BKN015CB OVC025 FM010200 09005KT P6SM SCT020 BKN080= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR THU...MVFR BKN025. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA. MDT SE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRI...MVFR BKN025. SCT SHRA/TSRA. MDT SSE WND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SAT...MVFR BKN025. SCT TSRA. MDT SE WND. .RADAR... AT 1100 CDT...WIDESPREAD AREA OF MDT RAFL WITH EMBEDDED SHWRS/TSTMS OVER SPILL LOCATION...XTNDG FM SE LA THRU 80NM SE OF SPILL LOCATION. AREAL MOVMT...N 8KT...CELL MOVMT NW 23KT. OCNL LGTNG...G35KT...ISOLD WSPTS AND VSBY 1/4SM OR LESS IN HVY RAFL. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 2.27 FT AT 1048 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 2.20 FT AT 1030 CDT. WYCM6 2.64 FT AT 1042 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 2.94 FT AT 1251 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 85.4F AT 1100 CDT. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........100 100 99 99 99 99 99 WEATHER COV.....WID WID WID WID WID WID WID WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............86 86 86 85 84 84 84 RH..............72 70 72 74 74 74 74 HEAT INDEX (F)..95 95 95 94 92 92 92 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..15 14 14 14 14 14 14 20 FT WIND GUST.30 30 30 30 25 25 25 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 MIX HGT (KM)....1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.21 21 20 20 20 18 18 TRANS SPD (M/S).9 9 9 9 9 8 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).90 90 90 90 90 90 90 CEILINGS........90 90 90 90 90 90 90 SEAS............7 7 7 7 7 7 7 SEA STATE.......VRO VRO VRO VRO VRO VRO VRO .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........99 97 97 97 95 95 WEATHER COV.....WIDSPD WIDSPD WIDSPD WIDSPD WIDSPD WIDSPD WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............84 84 84 83 82 82 RH..............74 74 75 77 79 79 HEAT INDEX (F)..92 92 92 90 89 89 20 FT WIND......SE 14 SE 14 SE 13 SE 13 SE 13 S 13 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....3500 3500 3000 3000 2800 3000 MIX HGT (M).....1070 1070 910 910 850 910 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 18 SE 20 S 21 S 21 S 22 S 20 TRAN WIND (M/S).SE 8 SE 9 S 9 S 9 S 10 S 9 CHC OF PCPN (%).90 80 80 80 80 80 SEAS............7 7 7 7 7 7 SEA STATE.......VRO RO RO RO RO CH .THURSDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........95 86 86 86 90 90 WEATHER COV.....WIDSPD WIDSPD WIDSPD WIDSPD WIDSPD WIDSPD WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............82 82 84 85 85 84 RH..............79 79 74 72 72 74 HEAT INDEX (F)..89 89 92 94 94 92 20 FT WIND......S 13 S 13 S 13 S 12 S 11 S 10 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 20 20 20 MIX HGT (FT)....3000 3300 3400 3400 3500 3500 MIX HGT (M).....910 1010 1040 1040 1070 1070 TRANSPORT WIND..S 20 S 17 S 18 S 18 S 20 SW 20 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 9 S 8 S 8 S 8 S 9 SW 9 CHC OF PCPN (%).80 80 80 80 80 80 SEAS............7 6 6 6 5 5 SEA STATE.......CH CH CH CH CH CH .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 80. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .SATURDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .INDEPENDENCE DAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...RICKS REQUESTED BY...CHRIS BANNAN TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100630.DEEPW.07/LIX