FNAK79 PAFG 021311
FWSAFG

SPOT FORECAST FOR FIRE 501 PAT CREEK...ALASKA FIRE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
511 AM AKDT FRI JUL 2 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0010 AKDT ON JULY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING THE AXIS OF A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM INDIAN MOUNTAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE FIRE AREA AND
INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TROUGH
POSITION IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
BEING OVER THE FIRE AREA THE WIND DIRECTION IS LIKELY
TO BE VARIABLE. THE TROUGH LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE FIRE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING AND THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FIRE
AREA SATURDAY AND AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD GENERATE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BY NOON SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THE
NORTH OF THE FIRE AREA AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND WET THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. WITH WEAK WIND FLOW ALOFT...THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND BE MAINLY WET.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WET
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 0-3 MPH IN THE MORNING. VARIABLE MAINLY
                    SOUTHWEST 3-6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........VARIABLE 3-6 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND WET THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 3-6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    NORTHEAST 2-4 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 500 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........VARIABLE 3-6 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST 2-4 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 TO 40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST 2-4 MPH IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
                    NORTHEAST 6-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 8500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 6-10 MPH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
55 TO 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5
TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS
NEAR 70. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...FISCHER
REQUESTED BY...GABE MASON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100702.FIRE5.01/AFG