FNUS75 KGJT 032014
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEADOW CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
214 PM MDT SAT JUL 3 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1907 MDT ON JULY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR LOW
RH...STRONG WINDS...AND DRY FUELS...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY 3 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR LOW
RH...STRONG WINDS...AND DRY FUELS...

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE...THE DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED OVER THE BURN SITE DIMINISHING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY...BUT CREATING RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN IN THE MORNING HOURS. BUT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. SO LATE
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL MAINLY BE WELL EAST OF THE FIRE. IN SPITE OF
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS...SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTS.

***NOTE: TEMPERATURES AND RH ARE FOR THE LAT LONG PROVIDED WITH THE
FORECAST REQUEST AT AN ELEVATION 7100 FEET. USE STANDARD LAPSE RATE
OF 3.5 DEGREES PER 1000FT TO ADJUST IN THE FIELD.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-23%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-40 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 24.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...INCREASING TO 14000
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS DEETS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100702.MEADO.01/GJT