FNUS75 KGJT 040004
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR CANYON...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
604 PM MDT SAT JUL 3 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1738 MDT ON JULY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER NORTHWEST
COLORADO HAVE CAUSED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER UTAH/COLORADO
BORDER JUST TO WEST OF BURN SITE THIS EVENING. THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM TO MOVE OVER BURN SITE THOUGH
APPEARS THEY WILL STAY JUST WEST. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NOON ONWARD. TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND CAUSE SOME BRIEF...STRONGER WINDS AS
IT MOVES OVER BURN SITE...AROUND 15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BY LATE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SWITCH AND COME FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 TO 12 MPH.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55F.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................2.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 12 TO 15
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.

$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...BRYAN YEAGER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100703.BEARC.01/GJT