FNUS75 KBOU 062341 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR COW CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 506 PM MDT TUE JUL 6 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL BE RESTING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY REST MORE TO THE EAST OF THE BURN SITE...AS IT MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A DEEP EASTERLY SURGE. THE SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTERNOON. ON THURSDAY IT WILL START TO WARM AGAIN BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-53. MIN HUMIDITY........44-48%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 8-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10000-11000 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-40. MAX HUMIDITY........84-87%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST 8-13 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST AROUND 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2200 FT AGL UNTIL 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58. MIN HUMIDITY........38-43%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS UNTIL 1200...THEN WEST AROUND 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7800-8800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COW CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 07/06-17 61 28 61 28 S 7 4 11520 SW 15 152252 E 07/06-18 63 34 60 30 S 7 7 4 4 W23 10340 SW 13 118607 V 07/06-19 63 34 58 32 S 8 4 7022 SW 9 79248 G 07/06-20 63 34 54 37 SE 9 4 3705 S 6 39889 P 07/06-21 58 42 50 45 E 10 16 4 4 SW32 387 CALM 530 P 07/06-22 58 42 47 55 E 12 4 378 SE 3 1204 P 07/06-23 58 42 46 65 E 13 4 369 E 6 1877 P 07/07-00 63 27 44 76 E 13 21 4 4 SW35 360 E 8 2551 P 07/07-01 63 27 43 83 E 13 4 381 E 7 2100 P 07/07-02 63 27 41 87 SE 13 4 403 E 5 1649 P 07/07-03 63 7 40 90 S 13 21 4 1 W33 424 SE 3 1198 P 07/07-04 63 7 39 90 S 13 1 355 SE 3 1095 P 07/07-05 63 7 39 85 SW 12 1 285 S 5 992 P 07/07-06 67 8 39 81 SW 10 16 4 1 W37 216 SW 5 889 P 07/07-07 67 8 41 75 SW 8 1 982 SW 6 5172 P 07/07-08 67 8 42 67 S 6 1 1748 SW 6 9456 P 07/07-09 67 8 45 60 S 5 5 4 1 W35 2514 SW 6 13739 P 07/07-10 67 8 47 54 SW 6 1 4939 SW 9 55430 F 07/07-11 67 8 49 51 SW 7 1 7364 SW 13 97121 G 07/07-12 58 32 50 49 W 8 13 4 4 SW29 9789 SW 16 138812 V 07/07-13 58 32 51 49 W 7 4 10216 SW 17 152659 E 07/07-14 58 32 51 49 SW 5 4 10644 SW 18 166507 E 07/07-15 58 32 51 49 SW 2 2 4 4 W32 11071 W 18 180355 E 07/07-16 58 32 52 48 SW 2 4 10616 W 17 161534 E 07/07-17 58 32 51 49 SW 3 4 10162 W 16 142713 V 07/07-18 72 40 51 64 SW 5 5 4 4 W37 2183 SW 5 9104 P 07/07-19 72 40 50 66 SW 5 4 1932 SW 5 7976 P 07/07-20 72 40 48 71 S 5 4 1682 S 5 6848 P 07/07-21 72 40 46 76 S 5 5 4 4 W28 1431 S 5 5721 P 07/07-22 72 40 44 79 S 6 4 1156 S 7 5537 P 07/07-23 72 40 44 80 SW 7 4 881 SW 8 5353 P 07/08-00 75 10 43 81 SW 8 13 3 1 W14 606 SW 10 5169 P 07/08-01 75 10 42 82 SW 8 1 514 SW 8 3973 P 07/08-02 75 10 41 83 W 7 1 422 W 7 2776 P 07/08-03 75 10 41 84 W 6 6 3 1 SW 9 330 W 6 1579 P 07/08-04 75 10 40 84 W 6 1 366 NW 5 1577 P 07/08-05 75 10 40 83 NW 5 1 403 N 5 1574 P 07/08-06 70 10 40 82 N 5 5 3 1 W21 439 N 5 1571 P 07/08-07 70 10 41 79 N 5 1 1130 N 3 3494 P 07/08-08 70 10 45 68 N 3 1 1822 N 3 5418 P 07/08-09 70 10 49 61 N 3 3 3 1 W18 2513 NW 3 7341 P 07/08-10 70 10 52 55 N 3 1 4271 NW 6 25354 P 07/08-11 70 10 54 51 N 5 1 6029 W 7 43366 F 07/08-12 74 30 55 49 NE 5 5 3 4 W18 7787 W 9 61378 G 07/08-13 74 30 56 48 NE 5 4 8153 W 10 72182 G 07/08-14 74 30 57 47 SE 5 4 8519 W 12 82986 G 07/08-15 74 30 57 47 S 5 5 3 4 W21 8885 W 13 93789 G 07/08-16 74 30 58 47 S 5 4 8597 W 10 82185 G 07/08-17 74 30 57 48 S 5 4 8310 W 9 70581 G 07/08-18 74 30 56 49 S 5 5 3 4 W18 8022 W 8 58976 F 07/08-19 74 30 55 52 S 5 4 6033 W 7 41415 F 07/08-20 74 30 53 56 S 5 4 4044 SW 5 23853 P 07/08-21 74 30 50 62 S 5 5 3 4 W16 2055 S 3 6291 P 07/08-22 74 30 48 67 SW 5 4 1680 SW 5 5629 P 07/08-23 74 30 47 68 SW 5 4 1306 SW 5 4967 P 07/09-00 59 0 46 70 SW 5 5 3 1 W15 931 SW 6 4304 P 07/09-01 59 0 45 72 W 5 1 720 W 6 3306 P 07/09-02 59 0 44 73 W 6 1 509 W 5 2308 P 07/09-03 59 0 43 74 W 6 6 3 1 W16 297 W 5 1309 P 07/09-04 59 0 42 75 W 6 1 272 W 5 1210 P 07/09-05 59 0 42 74 NW 6 1 248 W 5 1110 P 07/09-06 59 0 42 73 NW 6 6 3 1 W20 223 W 6 1010 P 07/09-07 59 0 44 70 NW 5 1 2046 W 7 15972 P 07/09-08 59 0 48 60 NW 5 1 3868 W 8 30934 P 07/09-09 59 0 52 53 NW 3 3 3 1 W16 5691 W 9 45896 F 07/09-10 59 0 56 47 NW 3 1 7097 W 9 59656 F 07/09-11 59 0 58 44 N 3 1 8502 W 10 73416 G 07/09-12 65 30 60 43 NE 3 3 3 4 W22 9907 W 10 87176 G 07/09-13 65 30 61 43 E 3 4 10206 W 10 93752 G 07/09-14 65 30 62 45 SE 3 4 10504 W 12 100329 V 07/09-15 65 30 62 46 S 3 3 3 4 W21 10803 W 12 106905 V 07/09-16 65 30 62 47 S 5 4 10407 W 12 100918 V 07/09-17 65 30 62 50 S 6 4 10011 W 10 94932 G 07/09-18 65 30 61 52 S 7 7 3 4 W23 9615 W 10 88946 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...NATE WILLIAMSON REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100706.COWCR.01/BOU