FNUS75 KBOU 072319 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR COW CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 444 PM MDT WED JUL 7 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER NOON. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN 30 MINUTES...SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 2100 THEN DIE OFF. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-58. MIN HUMIDITY........45-49%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. EYE-LEVEL WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE 3-6 MPH UNTIL 0900...UPSLOPE 4-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8200-9000 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. VERY GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-42. MAX HUMIDITY........90-95%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-8 MPH. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....DOWNSLOPE 2-6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN LIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-64. MIN HUMIDITY........37-42%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....DOWNSLOPE 3-6 MPH UNTIL 0900 THEN UPSLOPE 4-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10600-11600 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. VERY GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR COW CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 07/08-06 70 10 40 74 W 3 3 3 1 W26 224 W 3 749 P 07/08-07 70 10 41 72 NW 3 1 746 W 3 2127 P 07/08-08 70 10 45 63 N 3 1 1268 W 3 3505 P 07/08-09 70 10 49 57 N 3 3 3 1 W21 1790 W 3 4883 P 07/08-10 70 10 52 52 NE 3 1 3942 W 7 35598 P 07/08-11 70 10 54 49 E 5 1 6093 W 10 66313 G 07/08-12 74 30 55 48 SE 5 5 3 4 W22 8245 W 14 97027 G 07/08-13 74 30 56 48 S 5 4 8484 W 14 104460 V 07/08-14 74 30 57 48 SW 3 4 8724 W 15 111892 V 07/08-15 74 30 57 49 W 3 3 3 4 W29 8963 W 15 119325 V 07/08-16 74 30 58 50 SW 3 4 8710 W 15 111257 V 07/08-17 74 30 57 52 S 3 4 8457 W 14 103188 V 07/08-18 74 30 56 55 S 3 3 3 4 W31 8205 W 14 95120 G 07/08-19 74 30 55 59 S 3 4 5878 W 10 65102 G 07/08-20 74 30 53 66 S 5 4 3552 SW 8 35084 P 07/08-21 74 30 50 75 S 5 5 3 4 NW23 1225 S 5 5066 P 07/08-22 74 30 48 82 S 5 4 948 S 5 3894 P 07/08-23 74 30 47 85 S 5 4 670 S 5 2721 P 07/09-00 59 0 46 89 S 5 5 3 1 NW20 392 SW 5 1548 P 07/09-01 59 0 45 92 SW 5 1 330 SW 5 1360 P 07/09-02 59 0 44 93 W 6 1 267 W 6 1172 P 07/09-03 59 0 43 94 W 6 6 3 1 NW20 205 W 6 985 P 07/09-04 59 0 42 95 W 6 1 193 W 6 982 P 07/09-05 59 0 42 92 W 7 1 181 W 6 978 P 07/09-06 59 0 42 89 W 7 7 3 1 NW20 168 W 7 975 P 07/09-07 59 0 44 83 W 7 1 1768 W 9 20309 P 07/09-08 59 0 49 68 W 6 1 3369 NW 12 39643 P 07/09-09 59 0 53 57 NW 6 6 3 1 NW17 4969 NW 14 58977 F 07/09-10 59 0 57 49 NW 6 1 7000 NW 13 76693 G 07/09-11 59 0 59 44 N 6 1 9030 NW 13 94409 G 07/09-12 65 30 61 42 N 6 6 3 4 NW16 11061 NW 12 112125 V 07/09-13 65 30 62 42 NW 5 4 11312 NW 12 110233 V 07/09-14 65 30 63 43 SW 3 4 11563 NW 10 108342 V 07/09-15 65 30 63 45 S 2 2 3 4 W17 11813 W 10 106450 V 07/09-16 65 30 63 46 SW 2 4 11366 W 10 106949 V 07/09-17 65 30 63 48 NW 2 4 10919 W 12 107447 V 07/09-18 65 30 61 51 NW 2 2 3 4 W23 10472 W 12 107946 V 07/09-19 65 30 59 54 W 3 4 7126 W 9 72561 G 07/09-20 65 30 56 60 SW 3 4 3780 SW 7 37176 P 07/09-21 65 30 52 67 S 5 5 3 4 W22 435 S 5 1790 P 07/09-22 65 30 49 72 S 6 4 350 S 6 1556 P 07/09-23 65 30 48 72 SW 6 4 266 SW 6 1322 P 07/10-00 29 10 46 74 SW 7 7 3 2 NW25 182 SW 7 1087 P 07/10-01 29 10 45 77 SW 8 2 182 SW 8 1208 P 07/10-02 29 10 43 80 W 8 2 182 W 8 1330 P 07/10-03 29 10 42 84 W 9 15 3 2 NW25 182 W 9 1451 P 07/10-04 29 10 41 87 W 12 2 171 W 10 1572 P 07/10-05 29 10 41 85 W 14 2 161 W 13 1692 P 07/10-06 29 10 41 81 W 15 24 3 2 NW28 150 W 14 1813 P 07/10-07 29 10 43 70 W 15 2 900 W 16 14311 P 07/10-08 29 10 48 53 W 15 2 1650 W 17 26810 P 07/10-09 29 10 53 41 W 15 24 3 2 NW31 2400 W 18 39309 P 07/10-10 29 10 57 32 W 16 2 5154 W 21 106079 V 07/10-11 29 10 60 27 W 17 2 7908 NW 23 172849 E 07/10-12 56 20 61 26 NW 18 30 3 3 NW31 10662 NW 25 239620 E 07/10-13 56 20 63 26 W 18 3 10921 NW 25 238703 E 07/10-14 56 20 64 29 W 17 3 11180 NW 24 237786 E 07/10-15 56 20 64 33 W 16 25 3 3 NW30 11439 NW 24 236869 E 07/10-16 56 20 64 37 W 17 3 11051 NW 24 232117 E 07/10-17 56 20 64 43 W 17 3 10663 NW 24 227364 E 07/10-18 56 20 63 48 W 17 28 3 3 NW33 10275 NW 25 222612 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...NATE WILLIAMSON REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100707.COWCR.01/BOU