FNUS75 KCYS 081336
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH FORK SLASH PILE...CENTENNIAL VALLEY VFD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
736 AM MDT THU JUL 8 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MDT ON JULY 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS CREATED THE MOIST CONDITIONS NEAR
THE BURN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...ALSO MOVING
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH THE EXISTING MOISTURE TO BRING A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE BURN SITE STARTING LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
BURN SITE BY MID-AFTERNOON TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 8 PM TONIGHT WITH NO
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE LIGHT EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL SUPPORT THE GENERAL TREND TO
UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY TODAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-75 PERCENT). FOG IN THE VICINITY
                    THROUGH 10 AM. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 11 AM
                    AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM AFTER 3 PM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62 TO 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 TO 54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST-SOUTHEAST COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-9 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 BECOMING 2 AFTER 3 PM.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 12 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER 12 PM AT 6 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (63300-116800 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 8 PM.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SHIFTING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH.
CWR.................30 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 8 PM...THEN 1 OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (3900-54000 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...CARPENTER
REQUESTED BY...ERIC GREGORY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100708.NORTH.01/CYS