FNUS72 KILM 121723 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR HARDWICK FIRE...SC FORESTRY COMMISSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 123 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1311 EDT ON JULY 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP WARM...HUMID WEATHER IN PLACE OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR TRAPPING OF SMOKE AND POLLUTANTS AT GROUND LEVEL LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE FIRE LOCATION. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS UNFAVORABLE EAST OF THE SEABREEZE FRONT...TYPE 1-F. MAXIMUM WIND 500 TO 1000 FT AGL...DIRECTION SE...SPEED 17 MPH. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92. MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 17 MPH. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH. TIME (EDT) 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............75 58 58 WEATHER COV.........LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................87 90 89 MIN HUMIDITY........62 61 63 WIND (20 FT)........SE 7 S 9 S 9 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 20 15 WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SE 5 S 7 S 7 EYE LVL WND GST.....15 20 15 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 500-700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 17 MPH. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............65 76 76 77 77 81 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE S CHC ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................87 83 80 78 77 76 MIN HUMIDITY........67 80 87 92 96 100 WIND (20 FT)........S 8 S 5 S 5 S 4 S 3 S 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 5 5 5 WIND (EYE LEVEL)....S 6 S 4 S 4 S 3 S 2 S 2 EYE LVL WND GST.....15 10 10 5 5 5 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91. MIN HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT EARLY...INCREASING TO 4100 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 13 MPH. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............86 86 84 82 81 80 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................76 77 83 88 89 88 MIN HUMIDITY........100 97 79 70 68 70 WIND (20 FT)........S 3 S 4 S 5 S 5 S 6 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 10 10 10 WIND (EYE LEVEL)....S 2 S 3 S 4 S 4 S 4 S 4 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 5 10 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...ARMSTRONG REQUESTED BY...JONATHAN CALORE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100712.HARDW.01/ILM