FNUS72 KMFL 141848
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALLIGATOR BAY...DOI/NPS EVERGLADES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 EDT ON JULY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL KEEP SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AND OVER THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SOME BY THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY, WHEN
A STRONGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

DISPERSION INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE VERY GOOD RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST, PICKING UP SPEED A BIT BY
THURSDAY.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.
WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-4500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 14 TO 16 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....12 INCREASING TO 66.
LVORI...............3.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 3.

TIME (EDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM   9 PM
SKY (%).........50     50     50     50     50     50
WEATHER COV.....       SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............90     90     89     87     84     82
RH..............66     60     61     68     74     82
20 FT WIND......SE 6   S 6    S 6    SE 6   E 6    E 6
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     10     10     10     10
EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 6   S 6    S 6    SE 6   E 6    E 6
EYE LEVEL WIND..15     15     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....3200   4500   4500   4500   4500   3400
MIXNG WIND......SE 16  SE 16  SE 16  SE 16  E 17   E 17
DISPERSION IDX..55     64     64     66     66     23
LVORI...........1      1      1      1      3      3
CHC OF PCPN (%).50     50     50     50     50     30
LAL.............3      3      3      3      3      3

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH.
WIND (EYE LEVEL)....EAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1100-2200 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 16 TO 18 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....66 DECREASING TO 14.
LVORI...............3.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.

$$
FORECASTER...RADER
REQUESTED BY...CLAYTON CAMBLIN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED