FNUS74 KLIX 151403 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NOAA-OCS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 903 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS... AT 0800 CDT...1019MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. INVERTED TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG 85W. SFC PRES AT SOURCE 1018MB. .NEAR SHORE HEAT INDEX INFORMATION... AT 0900 CDT... GALLIANO /GAO/... 96F HOUMA /HUM/...101F GULFPORT /GPT/...100F SLIDELL /ASD/... 93F WEST DELTA /DLP/... 97F .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON-SVR TSTMS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON-SVR TSTMS. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 14Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC...W 7KT 250FT...W 7KT 500FT...NW 8KT 1KFT...NW 9KT 2KFT...NW 10KT 3KFT...N 10KT 4KFT...NE 12KT 5KFT...NE 12KT MAX WIND...038/31KT 46.9KFT. STORM MOTION...060/7KT DRY LAPSE TO 1300FT...PSEUDO LAPSE TO 5100FT...WEAK INVERSION TO 7800 FT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABOVE. 14/12Z NAM12 MODEL SNDG AT SPOT LOCATION VALID 18Z WED 7/15/10 SFC...NW 8KT 250FT...NW 9KT 500FT...NW 9KT 1KFT...NW 10KT 2KFT...NW 10KT 3KFT...NW 10KT 4KFT...N 14KT 5KFT...NE 8KT MAX WIND...055/29KT 23.4KFT. DRY LAPSE TO 3500FT...NEUTRAL 13600...INVERSION 17000...PSEUDO LAPSE ABOVE. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 151351Z AUTO 32008KT 10SM CLR 29/25 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP185 T02940250 TSNO METAR KGAO 151340Z AUTO 31005KT 29/26 A3009 RMK AO2 SKY OBSCURED PWINO METAR KHSA 151351Z 32007KT 10SM CLR 28/25 A3006 METAR KIPN 151355Z AUTO VRB04KT 10SM CLR 56/49 A3007 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 091220Z AUTO 08008KT 10SM CLR 28/23 A3000 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 151355Z AUTO 36009KT 10SM SCT022 BKN030 31/25 A3009 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 151355Z AUTO 31012KT 10SM FEW025 FEW042 FEW049 30/24 A3008 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 151355Z AUTO 30009G15KT 9SM FEW017 FEW023 FEW027 30/25 A3007 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT030. MARINE AREAS...VFR SCT030. KHUM 151125Z 1512/1612 27004KT P6SM FEW030 TEMPO 1512/1513 5SM BR FM151400 32005KT P6SM SCT025 FM160000 23004KT P6SM SCT250 TEMPO 1610/1612 5SM BR KHSA 151125Z 1512/1612 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250 FM151500 33005KT P6SM FEW030 SCT120 FM151900 29005KT P6SM SCT040CB FM152200 22005KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB FM160100 17003KT P6SM BKN200= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRI...VFR SCT030 BKN050. SCT SHRA/TSRA. LGT TO MOD SE WIND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SAT...VFR SCT030 BKN050. SCT SHRA/TSRA. LGT SE WIND BCMG S AFT 21Z. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUN...VFR SCT030 BKN050. SCT SHRA/TSRA. LGT SE WIND. .RADAR... AT 0900 CDT...SCT SHRA/TSRA LOCATED ALONG A SW-NE LINE RUNNING THROUGH THE SPILL SITE. RAINFALL IS MOSTLY LGT TO MOD...BUT A CLUSTER OF CELLS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOCATED ABOUT 40 NMI NE OF SPILL SITE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING OCCURRING WITH THIS CLUSTER. CLOSEST LIGHTNING IS 25 NMI NE OF THE SITE. CELL MOVEMENT IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE S. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.19 FT AT 0836 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.32 FT AT 1147 CDT. WYCM6 0.82 FT AT 0836 CDT FALLING...HIGH TIDE 1.32 FT AT 1434 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 87.3F. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........42 34 34 34 33 33 55 55 55 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............86 87 88 89 89 89 89 89 88 RH..............85 80 76 72 69 69 69 71 72 HEAT INDEX (F)..100 101 102 103 103 103 103 103 102 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW N N N N NW S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 4 2 2 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.5 2.5 MIX HGT (KM)....1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.13 13 13 13 6 6 6 1 1 TRANS SPD (M/S).6 6 6 6 3 3 3 0 0 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......CH LC LC LC LC LC LC SM SM .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........55 60 67 67 69 68 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............87 84 82 82 81 81 RH..............72 80 88 86 89 91 HEAT INDEX (F)..99 94 91 91 89 90 20 FT WIND......S 3 S 5 S 5 SE 5 SE 5 SE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2500 2500 3100 3100 3200 3100 MIX HGT (M).....760 760 940 940 980 940 TRANSPORT WIND..N 1 E 2 SE 6 SE 6 SE 3 E 3 TRAN WIND (M/S).N 0 E 1 SE 3 SE 3 SE 1 E 1 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 20 20 30 30 SEAS............2 1 1 1 2 2 SEA STATE.......SM SM LC LC LC LC .FRIDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........68 68 58 58 56 43 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............81 83 87 89 90 90 RH..............91 85 75 68 64 64 HEAT INDEX (F)..89 93 99 99 99 99 20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 6 SE 8 SE 8 SE 8 SE 9 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....3100 3300 3900 3900 4200 2900 MIX HGT (M).....940 1010 1190 1190 1280 880 TRANSPORT WIND..E 3 E 7 E 10 E 10 E 14 SE 16 TRAN WIND (M/S).E 1 E 3 E 4 E 4 E 6 SE 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 40 40 SEAS............2 2 2 2 3 3 SEA STATE.......LC LC CH CH CH LC $$ FORECASTER...MANNING REQUESTED BY...TIM OSBORN TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100715.DEEPW.05/LIX