FNUS74 KLIX 151504 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NOAA-OCS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1004 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS... AT 1000 CDT...1019MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. INVERTED TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG 85W. SFC PRES AT SOURCE 1018MB. .NEAR SHORE HEAT INDEX INFORMATION... AT 1000 CDT... GALLIANO /GAO/... 96F HOUMA /HUM/...101F GULFPORT /GPT/...100F SLIDELL /ASD/... 93F WEST DELTA /DLP/... 97F .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON-SVR TSTMS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON-SVR TSTMS. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 15Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC...NW 8KT 250FT...NW 9KT 500FT...NW 10KT 1KFT...NW 12KT 2KFT...NW 14KT 3KFT...N 14KT 4KFT...N 14KT 5KFT...NE 15KT MAX WIND...031/34KT 40.7KFT. STORM MOTION...055/8KT ROUGHLY DRY LAPSE TO 5900FT...WEAK INVERSION TO 8500 FT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABOVE. 14/12Z NAM12 MODEL SNDG AT SPOT LOCATION VALID 18Z WED 7/15/10 SFC...NW 8KT 250FT...NW 9KT 500FT...NW 9KT 1KFT...NW 10KT 2KFT...NW 10KT 3KFT...NW 10KT 4KFT...N 14KT 5KFT...NE 8KT MAX WIND...055/29KT 23.4KFT. DRY LAPSE TO 3500FT...NEUTRAL 13600...INVERSION 17000...PSEUDO LAPSE ABOVE. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 151451Z AUTO 31009KT 10SM CLR 31/25 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP186 T03060250 53003 TSNO METAR KGAO 151440Z AUTO 29008KT CLR 31/25 A3008 RMK AO2 PWINO METAR KHSA 151450Z 33006KT 10SM CLR 30/25 A3005 METAR KIPN 151455Z AUTO 30006KT 10SM CLR 58/51 A3006 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 091220Z AUTO 08008KT 10SM CLR 28/23 A3000 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 151455Z AUTO 33008KT 10SM 31/24 A3009 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 151455Z AUTO 33013KT 10SM FEW020 SCT024 BKN031 30/26 A3010 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 151455Z AUTO 31011KT 8SM FEW016 FEW022 FEW042 30/26 A3008 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT030. MARINE AREAS...VFR SCT030. KHUM 151125Z 1512/1612 27004KT P6SM FEW030 TEMPO 1512/1513 5SM BR FM151400 32005KT P6SM SCT025 FM160000 23004KT P6SM SCT250 TEMPO 1610/1612 5SM BR KHSA 151125Z 1512/1612 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250 FM151500 33005KT P6SM FEW030 SCT120 FM151900 29005KT P6SM SCT040CB FM152200 22005KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB FM160100 17003KT P6SM BKN200= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRI...VFR SCT030 BKN050. SCT SHRA/TSRA. LGT TO MOD SE WIND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SAT...VFR SCT030 BKN050. SCT SHRA/TSRA. LGT SE WIND BCMG S AFT 21Z. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUN...VFR SCT030 BKN050. SCT SHRA/TSRA. LGT SE WIND. .RADAR... AT 1000 CDT...LG CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING AREAS NE AND E OF SPILL SITE. STRONGEST STORMS ARE PRODUCING FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING ABOUT 40 NMI NE OF SPILL SITE. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A SECOND AND WEAKER CLUSTER IS PRODUCING LESS FREQUENT LIGHTNING ABOUT 20 NMI E OF THE SPILL SITE. CELL MOVEMENT A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE S OR SW. A FEW GUSTS OF 34 KT OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SPILL SITE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AS THESE STORMS APPROACH. ADDITIONALLY...THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS IN THEIR VICINITY. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.23 FT AT 0936 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.32 FT AT 1200 CDT. WYCM6 0.70 FT AT 0936 CDT FALLING...PREDICTED HIGH TIDE 1.32 FT AT 1434 CDT...BUT TIDES WILL BE LOWER THAN FORECAST. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 87.1F. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........34 34 34 33 33 55 55 55 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............87 88 89 89 89 89 89 88 RH..............80 76 72 69 69 69 71 72 HEAT INDEX (F)..101 102 103 103 103 103 103 102 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW N N N N NW S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 4 2 2 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.5 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.5 2.5 MIX HGT (KM)....1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.13 13 13 6 6 6 1 1 TRANS SPD (M/S).6 6 6 3 3 3 0 0 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......LC LC LC LC LC LC SM SM .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........55 60 67 67 69 68 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............87 84 82 82 81 81 RH..............72 80 88 86 89 91 HEAT INDEX (F)..99 94 91 91 89 90 20 FT WIND......S 3 S 5 S 5 SE 5 SE 5 SE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2500 2500 3100 3100 3200 3100 MIX HGT (M).....760 760 940 940 980 940 TRANSPORT WIND..N 1 E 2 SE 6 SE 6 SE 3 E 3 TRAN WIND (M/S).N 0 E 1 SE 3 SE 3 SE 1 E 1 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 20 20 30 30 SEAS............2 1 1 1 2 2 SEA STATE.......SM SM LC LC LC LC .FRIDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........68 68 58 58 56 43 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............81 83 87 89 90 90 RH..............91 85 75 68 64 64 HEAT INDEX (F)..89 93 99 99 99 99 20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 6 SE 8 SE 8 SE 8 SE 9 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....3100 3300 3900 3900 4200 2900 MIX HGT (M).....940 1010 1190 1190 1280 880 TRANSPORT WIND..E 3 E 7 E 10 E 10 E 14 SE 16 TRAN WIND (M/S).E 1 E 3 E 4 E 4 E 6 SE 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 40 40 SEAS............2 2 2 2 3 3 SEA STATE.......LC LC CH CH CH LC $$ FORECASTER...MANNING REQUESTED BY...TIM OSBORN TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100715.DEEPW.06/LIX