FNUS74 KLIX 151705 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NOAA-OCS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1205 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS... AT 1200 CDT...1020MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND WAS CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD. INVERTED TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG 86W. SFC PRES AT SOURCE 1018MB. .NEAR SHORE HEAT INDEX INFORMATION... AT 1200 CDT... GALLIANO /GAO/...103F HOUMA /HUM/...101F GULFPORT /GPT/...109F SLIDELL /ASD/...103F WEST DELTA /DLP/...103F .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON-SVR TSTMS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON-SVR TSTMS. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 17Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC...NW 10KT 250FT...NW 11KT 500FT...NW 12KT 1KFT...NW 15KT 2KFT...NW 16KT 3KFT...N 15KT 4KFT...N 14KT 5KFT...NE 10KT MAX WIND...045/22KT 27.2FT. STORM MOTION...060/8KT DRY LAPSE TO 500FT...PSEUDO LAPSE ABOVE. 14/12Z NAM12 MODEL SNDG AT SPOT LOCATION VALID 18Z WED 7/15/10 SFC...NW 8KT 250FT...NW 9KT 500FT...NW 9KT 1KFT...NW 10KT 2KFT...NW 10KT 3KFT...NW 10KT 4KFT...N 14KT 5KFT...NE 8KT MAX WIND...055/29KT 23.4KFT. DRY LAPSE TO 3500FT...NEUTRAL 13600...INVERSION 17000...PSEUDO LAPSE ABOVE. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 151651Z AUTO 34006KT 9SM CLR 32/26 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP183 T03170261 TSNO METAR KGAO 151640Z AUTO 29003KT SCT028 SCT038 32/25 A3007 RMK AO2 PWINO METAR KHSA 151650Z 33004KT 10SM SCT050 33/24 A3004 METAR KIPN 151655Z AUTO 30006KT 10SM CLR 57/50 A3006 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 091220Z AUTO 08008KT 10SM CLR 28/23 A3000 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 151655Z AUTO 36007KT 10SM 31/25 A3008 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 151655Z AUTO 33013KT 10SM CLR 30/25 A3008 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 151655Z AUTO 30008KT 230V320 9SM CLR 32/25 A3006 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT030. MARINE AREAS...VFR SCT030. KHUM 151125Z 1512/1612 27004KT P6SM FEW030 TEMPO 1512/1513 5SM BR FM151400 32005KT P6SM SCT025 FM160000 23004KT P6SM SCT250 TEMPO 1610/1612 5SM BR KHSA 151125Z 1512/1612 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250 FM151500 33005KT P6SM FEW030 SCT120 FM151900 29005KT P6SM SCT040CB FM152200 22005KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB FM160100 17003KT P6SM BKN200= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRI...VFR SCT030 BKN050. SCT SHRA/TSRA. LGT TO MOD SE WIND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SAT...VFR SCT030 BKN050. SCT SHRA/TSRA. LGT SE WIND BCMG S AFT 21Z. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUN...VFR SCT030 BKN050. SCT SHRA/TSRA. LGT SE WIND. .RADAR... AT 1200 CDT...LG CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 60 NMI SW OF THE SPILL SITE TO 75 NMI NNW OF SPILL SITE. STRONGEST STORMS ARE PRODUCING FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING ABOUT 45 NMI NNE OF SPILL SITE. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF OVER 34KT ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONG STORMS. STORMS CLOSER TO THE SPILL SITE HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND APPEAR TO BE MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CELLS PRODUCING INFREQUENT LIGHTNING. CLOSEST LIGHTNING IS ABOUT 20 NMI N2 OF SPILL SITE. LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 1.29 FT AT 1136 CDT STEADY...LOW TIDE 0.64 FT AT 2245 CDT. WYCM6 1.02 FT AT 1136 CDT RISING...HIGH TIDE 1.12 FT AT 1500 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 86.5F. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........34 33 33 55 55 55 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............89 89 89 89 89 88 RH..............72 69 69 69 71 72 HEAT INDEX (F)..103 103 103 103 103 102 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N NW S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 4 2 2 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.5 2.5 MIX HGT (KM)....1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.13 6 6 6 1 1 TRANS SPD (M/S).6 3 3 3 0 0 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............2 2 2 2 2 2 SEA STATE.......LC LC LC LC SM SM .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........55 60 67 67 69 68 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............87 84 82 82 81 81 RH..............72 80 88 86 89 91 HEAT INDEX (F)..99 94 91 91 89 90 20 FT WIND......S 3 S 5 S 5 SE 5 SE 5 SE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2500 2500 3100 3100 3200 3100 MIX HGT (M).....760 760 940 940 980 940 TRANSPORT WIND..N 1 E 2 SE 6 SE 6 SE 3 E 3 TRAN WIND (M/S).N 0 E 1 SE 3 SE 3 SE 1 E 1 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 20 20 30 30 SEAS............2 1 1 1 2 2 SEA STATE.......SM SM LC LC LC LC .FRIDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........68 68 58 58 56 43 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............81 83 87 89 90 90 RH..............91 85 75 68 64 64 HEAT INDEX (F)..89 93 99 99 99 99 20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 6 SE 8 SE 8 SE 8 SE 9 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....3100 3300 3900 3900 4200 2900 MIX HGT (M).....940 1010 1190 1190 1280 880 TRANSPORT WIND..E 3 E 7 E 10 E 10 E 14 SE 16 TRAN WIND (M/S).E 1 E 3 E 4 E 4 E 6 SE 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 40 40 SEAS............2 2 2 2 3 3 SEA STATE.......LC LC CH CH CH LC $$ FORECASTER...MANNING REQUESTED BY...TIM OSBORN TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100715.DEEPW.08/LIX