FNUS74 KLIX 152252 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NOAA-OCS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 552 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SYNOPSIS... AT 1800 CDT...1019MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTERN GULF. WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS IS COINDICENT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST. SFC PRES AT SOURCE 1016MB. .NEAR SHORE HEAT INDEX INFORMATION... AT 1600 CDT... GALLIANO /GAO/...110F HOUMA /HUM/...101F GULFPORT /GPT/...113F SLIDELL /ASD/...107F BOOTHVILLE /BVE/...106F WEST DELTA /DLP/...105F .WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY... ...SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON-SVR TSTMS. ...SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK...GENRL NON-SVR TSTMS. .SOUNDING INFO/WIND PROFILE... 23Z RUC13 SOUNDING AT SPOT LOCATION SFC...E 5KT 250FT...N 5KT 500FT...N 5KT 1KFT...N 8KT 2KFT...N 10KT 3KFT...N 10KT 4KFT...N 10KT 5KFT...N 10KT MAX WIND...051/32KT 22.1FT. STORM MOTION...084/9KT 14/12Z NAM12 MODEL SNDG AT SPOT LOCATION VALID 18Z WED 7/15/10 SFC...NW 8KT 250FT...NW 9KT 500FT...NW 9KT 1KFT...NW 10KT 2KFT...NW 10KT 3KFT...NW 10KT 4KFT...N 14KT 5KFT...NE 8KT MAX WIND...055/29KT 23.4KFT. DRY LAPSE TO 3500FT...NEUTRAL 13600...INVERSION 17000...PSEUDO LAPSE ABOVE. .NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS... ...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS ...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS ...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS ...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W ...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W ...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W ...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W ...KDLP - WEST DELTA 29.1N 89.6W METAR KBVE 152151Z AUTO VRB03KT 9SM CLR 34/24 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP156 T03440239 TSNO METAR KGAO 152240Z AUTO 00000KT CLR 35/23 A2998 RMK AO2 PWINO METAR KHSA 151955Z 30004KT 10SM SCT060 34/22 A2998 METAR KIPN 152235Z AUTO 06005KT 10SM CLR 53/46 A3001 RMK A01 METAR KMYT 091220Z AUTO 08008KT 10SM CLR 28/23 A3000 RMK A01 METAR KSPR 152235Z AUTO 35007KT 10SM 31/25 A3000 RMK A01 METAR KMDJ 152235Z AUTO 31007KT 10SM CLR 31/24 A3001 RMK A01 METAR KDLP 152235Z AUTO 23005KT 9SM CLR 34/25 A2998 RMK A01 .AREAL AVIATION... COASTAL LAND AREAS...VFR SCT030. MARINE AREAS...VFR SCT030. KHUM 151740Z 1518/1618 27006KT P6SM SCT040 FM160000 23004KT P6SM SCT250 FM161400 33004KT P6SM SCT030 PROB30 1615/1618 3SM TSRA BKN030CB KHSA 151740Z 1518/1618 33004KT P6SM SCT040 FM152200 22005KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB FM160000 17003KT P6SM FEW060 BKN200 FM161600 12004KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 BKN080 PROB30 1616/1618 3SM TSRA BKN030CB= AREAL OUTLOOK FOR FRI...VFR SCT030 BKN050. SCT SHRA/TSRA. LGT TO MOD SE WIND. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SAT...VFR SCT030 BKN050. SCT SHRA/TSRA. LGT SE WIND BCMG S AFT 21Z. AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUN...VFR SCT030 BKN050. SCT SHRA/TSRA. LGT SE WIND. .RADAR... AT 1800 CDT...NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITHIN 50NM OF SOURCE. .TIDAL INFORMATION... PSTL1 0.94 FT AT 1736 CDT FALLING...LOW TIDE 0.64 FT AT 2245 CDT. WYCM6 1.32 FT AT 1736 CDT FALLING...LOW TIDE 0.47 FT AT 2300 CDT. BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 87F. .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........55 55 50 50 67 67 67 69 69 69 69 55 55 WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............87 87 86 84 83 82 82 82 81 81 81 81 81 RH..............67 69 73 79 82 82 85 88 88 88 88 88 88 HEAT INDEX (F)..96 96 95 92 91 89 90 90 88 88 88 88 88 20 FT WIND DIR..NE E E SE SE SE SE S S S S S SE 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 MIX HGT (KM)....0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.N SE SE SE S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.3 6 6 6 13 13 13 13 9 9 9 6 6 TRANS SPD (M/S).1 3 3 3 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 20 20 20 20 20 30 30 30 30 30 30 CEILINGS........30 30 20 20 20 20 20 30 30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SEA STATE.......SM LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC .FRIDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........55 68 58 58 56 48 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............81 82 87 88 89 89 RH..............85 82 68 65 63 63 HEAT INDEX (F)..87 89 96 98 99 99 20 FT WIND......SE 5 E 5 SE 7 SE 8 SE 8 SE 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....3100 3200 3700 3700 4100 3600 MIX HGT (M).....940 980 1130 1130 1250 1100 TRANSPORT WIND..S 6 SE 5 E 9 E 9 E 13 E 14 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 3 SE 2 E 4 E 4 E 6 E 6 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 50 50 SEAS............1 1 1 1 2 2 SEA STATE.......LC LC CH CH CH LC .FRIDAY NIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........48 50 54 54 65 55 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............87 84 82 81 80 79 RH..............65 72 77 79 82 85 HEAT INDEX (F)..95 91 88 86 84 79 20 FT WIND......SE 7 SE 7 SE 8 SE 10 SE 10 SE 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 20 20 20 MIX HGT (FT)....3600 4100 3900 3900 3600 3400 MIX HGT (M).....1100 1250 1190 1190 1100 1040 TRANSPORT WIND..E 14 E 15 SE 17 SE 17 SE 17 E 15 TRAN WIND (M/S).E 6 E 7 SE 8 SE 8 SE 8 E 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 30 30 30 30 30 SEAS............2 2 2 2 3 3 SEA STATE.......LC CH CH CH CH CH .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 80. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .SUNDAY... MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .MONDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 80. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...ERICKSON REQUESTED BY...CHRIS BANNAN TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20100715.DEEPW.13/LIX