FNUS72 KMFL 151150
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALLIGATOR BAY...DOI/NPS EVERGLADES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
750 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON JULY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. THE WIND MAY SHIFT MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BURN AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. WIND SPEEDS WILL
START OUT AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND THEN THEY WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BURN SITE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, HOWEVER THEY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
AFTERNOON DISPERSION INDICIES WILL BE IN THE VERY GOOD RANGE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
WIND (EYE LEVEL)....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 15 TO
                    16 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....2 INCREASING TO 64.
LVORI...............6.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 15 TO
                    16 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM
SKY (%).........40     50     50     50     50     50
WEATHER COV.....       SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............87     91     91     91     89     86
RH..............69     61     60     60     62     68
20 FT WIND......E 4    E 7    SE 8   SE 8   SE 7   E 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5      15     15     15     15     10
EYE LEVEL WIND..E 4    E 7    SE 8   SE 8   SE 7   E 5
EYE LEVEL WIND..5      15     15     15     15     10
MIX HGT (FT)....2400   4500   5000   5000   4500   2600
MIXNG WIND......E 7    E 15   SE 16  SE 16  SE 15  E 9
DISPERSION IDX..23     62     68     68     59     6
LVORI...........3      1      1      1      1      3
CHC OF PCPN (%).50     50     50     50     50     20
LAL.............1      3      3      3      3      2

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.
WIND (EYE LEVEL)....EAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....59 DECREASING TO 7 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LVORI...............3.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 15 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING CONSIDERABLE
                    CLOUDINESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH.
WIND (EYE LEVEL)....EAST WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3 UNTIL 1400...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 23 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....8 INCREASING TO 40 EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 66 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING
                    TO 48 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3 UNTIL 1400...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 23 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.

$$
FORECASTER...CARACOZZA
REQUESTED BY...CLAYTON CAMBLIN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED