FNUS72 KMFL 151641 FWSMFL SPOT FORECAST FOR ALLIGATOR BAY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1241 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON JULY 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. THE WIND MAY SHIFT MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BURN AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. WIND SPEEDS WILL START OUT AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND THEN THEY WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BURN SITE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, HOWEVER THEY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE IN THE VERY GOOD RANGE. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91. MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT. LAL.................3. MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-5000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 16 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....64. LVORI...............1. LAL.................3. MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-5000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 16 MPH. TIME (EDT) 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM SKY (%).........50 50 50 50 50 30 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............91 91 90 88 85 81 RH..............60 60 61 65 71 79 20 FT WIND......E 7 SE 8 SE 7 SE 7 E 5 E 5 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND..E 7 SE 8 SE 7 SE 7 E 5 E 5 EYE LEVEL WIND..15 15 15 15 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....4500 5000 4500 4500 2600 700 MIXNG WIND......E 15 SE 16 SE 15 SE 15 E 9 E 9 DISPERSION IDX..62 68 59 59 6 6 LVORI...........1 1 1 1 3 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 20 20 LAL.............3 3 3 3 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77. MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....EAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 15 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....59 DECREASING TO 7 EARLY IN THE EVENING. LVORI...............3. LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 15 MPH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90. MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....EAST WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT. LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3 UNTIL 1400...THEN 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 23 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. DISPERSION INDEX....8 INCREASING TO 40 EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 66 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 48 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LVORI...............3. LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3 UNTIL 1400...THEN 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 23 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. $$ FORECASTER...RADER REQUESTED BY...FED TRIVETT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED $$ REQUESTED BY...CLAYTON CAMBLIN REASON FOR REQUEST...UNDER THE INTERAGENCY AGREEMENT FOR METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES (USFS, BLM, NPS, U