FNUS72 KILM 171827 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR HARDWICK FIRE...SC FORESTRY COMMISSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 227 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1407 EDT ON JULY 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SMOKE DISPERSION WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD AT THE HARDWICK WILDFIRE SITE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS AND MODERATELY STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS. EVENING MIXING HEIGHTS WILL DROP BELOW 1000 FEET BUT CONTINUED FAVORABLE TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MEAN FAIR TO GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY AS SIMILAR TO TODAY...WE ANTICIPATE VERY GOOD TO GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION AS WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DISPERSION OF THE SMOKE. SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONDITIONS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MAY BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS ON SUNDAY. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93. MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 3400 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 18 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 7 MPH LATE. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH. TIME (EDT) 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............55 52 WEATHER COV......... ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........NONE TSTORM TEMP................92 93 MIN HUMIDITY........54 52 WIND (20 FT)........SW 9 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SW 7 SW 5 EYE LVL WND GST.....15 15 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77. MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400-900 FT AGL IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 12 MPH. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............54 54 66 74 83 81 WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................91 87 83 80 79 78 MIN HUMIDITY........56 67 74 79 83 87 WIND (20 FT)........SW 6 SW 4 SW 5 SW 6 SW 5 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 5 10 10 10 10 WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SW 4 SW 3 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 EYE LVL WND GST.....10 5 10 10 10 10 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90. MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5700 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 2700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 4900 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............80 74 68 61 55 57 WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................78 75 82 87 89 88 MIN HUMIDITY........87 94 74 64 63 62 WIND (20 FT)........SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 10 WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 EYE LVL WND GST.....10 10 10 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...COLBY REQUESTED BY...JONATHAN CALORE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100717.HARDW.01/ILM