FNUS75 KPUB 190159
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEDANO...USNPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
759 PM MDT SUN JUL 18 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FIRE AREA TODAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ABOVE THE REGION STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FLOW ALOFT TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WHICH WILL HELP DRAW SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE UP INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE FEED IS EXPECTED TO HELP MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SAN LUIS
VALLEY BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. NO BIG
COOLDOWN IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST...BUT THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIGHT...SO NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. NORMAL SLOPE AND VALLEY WIND CIRCULATIONS WILL
BE THE NORM AFTER SUNSET THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...AS ALWAYS
THE CASE...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...SO
KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPING CUMULUS AND TAKE NOTE ON HOW THE
SURROUNDING TERRAIN WILL AFFECT AND CHANNEL THUNDERSTORM
DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOW.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (51
                    PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-19 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH THROUGH 0700...
                    THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1200...
                    THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (36 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58F.
MAX HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (53 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1500...THEN
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH THROUGH 0700...
                    THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-6 MPH BY 0900.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3 UNTIL 1500...THEN 4.

$$
FORECASTER...MOORE
REQUESTED BY...ZION MODULE-WALDRON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100718.MEDAN.01/PUB