FNAK79 PAFG 221423
FWSAFG

SPOT FORECAST FOR 501 PAT CREEK...ALASKA FIRE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
623 AM AKDT THU JUL 22 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1845 AKDT ON JULY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND THE NORTHEAST ALASKA INTERIOR.
THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT FAIRBANKS SHOWS THAT A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE LIGHT WIND FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING
AND COULD PRODUCE WETTING RAINS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS A COLD LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST ALASKA. THE COLDEST AIR IS
EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE
BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FIRE AREA.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    10 MPH IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 10
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-1000 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........WEST AROUND 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 2 TO 4 MPH IN THE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1000 FT AGL IN THE EARLY MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 5500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
WINDS.
.MONDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...FISCHER
REQUESTED BY...DIRK GILES
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100721.501PA.01/AFG