FNUS73 KAPX 211559 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR BLUE BEES UNIT 10...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1159 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON JULY 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...UPDATE...THERE IS ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM/ WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE AREA. AT 1155 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF TRAVERSE CITY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...IT WAS THOUGHT THAT ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED WOULD BE EAST OF THE BURN SITE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS GENERATED FROM NEARBY SHOWERS. IF SHOWERS OR STORMS MOVE WITHIN 5 MILES OF THE BURN SITE... WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF A THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER THE SITE...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS . TEMPERATURE.........77 AT IGNITION...MAX 83. MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1500) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (2300). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........36 36 49 49 49 45 WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW TEMP............77 78 79 80 80 79 RH..............60 58 52 49 47 49 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..7 9 10 10 10 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 16 17 19 20 20 HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 5 4 4 SMOKE DISP......150020002300230023002000 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....59. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 16 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN EXCELLENT(800). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........45 45 19 19 19 19 19 19 24 24 24 24 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW TEMP............79 78 77 73 69 66 64 63 62 61 61 61 RH..............49 48 50 62 76 87 93 93 93 97 97 97 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W NW W W NW NW NW NW NW W 20 FT WIND SPD..8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 SMOKE DISP......190016001200800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....79. MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(800). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........24 36 36 36 45 45 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............61 62 68 73 76 77 RH..............97 97 78 66 60 60 20 FT WIND......W 2 W 3 W 3 W 4 SW 6 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 10 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......800 800 800 800 800 800 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF HALBLAUB REQUESTED BY...ALYEA JOE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100721.BLUEB.01/APX