FNUS75 KPUB 220141
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEDANO...USNPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
741 PM MDT WED JUL 21 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE BURN AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DIURNALLY EACH DAY.  HARD TO PINPOINT WHETHER
OR NOT A THUNDERSTORM WILL TRACK DIRECTLY OVER THE BURN AREA.  BEST
WE CAN DO IS FORECAST SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE.  IF A STORM DOES HIT
THE SITE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE ODDS FOR
RAINFALL MAY GO UP ON SATURDAY IF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INDEED BACKS
INTO THE BURN AREA FROM THE PLAINS AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.  THIS
IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT AND NEEDS FURTHER RESOLUTION.

AS FOR THE EAST WIND POTENTIAL...IT LOOKS LIKE JUST WEST WINDS THROUGH
THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL START TO TURN
AROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE GOVERNED BY SLOPE AND
VALLEY CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE BURN AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP.  ON SATURDAY...STRONGER
EASTERLY WINDS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS.  EASTERLY WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 10-20 MPH ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75F.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55F.
MAX HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...ZION MODULE-WALDRON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100721.MEDAN.01/PUB