FNUS75 KPUB 230120
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEDANO...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
720 PM MDT THU JUL 22 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER BURN AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  SO...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE.  AGAIN...HARD TO DISCERN WHETHER OR NOT A THUNDERSTORM
WILL TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS THE BURN AREA.  CAN ONLY INDICATE EXPECTED
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE REGION OF CONCERN.  FROM YOUR REPORT...SOUNDS
LIKE MODERATE RAINFALL AFFECTED MUCH OF THE BURN AREA TODAY.  SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TOMORROW...SO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE BURN AREA...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL START TO TURN AROUND
A BIT TOMORROW...WHICH MAY BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF EASTERLY WINDS
TO THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.  HOWEVER...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE WINDS ON THE FIRE WILL LIKELY REMAIN GOVERNED
BY SLOPE AND VALLEY CIRCULATIONS ON THIS DAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS...COOLER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE BURN SITE BEGINNING MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WINDS
ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE EASTERLY ON THE ORDER OF 10-20 MPH.  AFTERNOON
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIKELY AT THIS POINT AS WELL.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78F.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55F.
MAX HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70F.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........BECOMING EAST AROUND 10 MPH...WITH GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...ZION MODULE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100722.MEDAN.01/PUB