FNAK79 PAFG 241202
FWSAFG

SPOT FORECAST FOR 501 PAT CREEK...ALASKA FIRE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
402 AM AKDT SAT JUL 24 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1851 AKDT ON JULY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK THERMAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL UPPER YUKON THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE FIRE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MAY SET OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...WITH THE AIR MASS STABILIZING SOME.

A MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UPPER YUKON VALLEY
TUESDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW WILL RESULT
IN STRONGER WINDS OVER THE FIRE AREA. WEST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 0-2 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    6-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1000 FT AGL RISING TO 6000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40 TO 45.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 6-10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING
                    DIMINISHING TO 1-3 MPH AFTER 2300.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 500-1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 1-3 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 0-2 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 3-6
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 6000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 6-10 MPH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 50. HIGHS NEAR 75. LIGHT WINDS.
.TUESDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 50. HIGHS NEAR 75. NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 10 MPH BECOMING WEST 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 50. HIGHS NEAR 75.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...FISCHER
REQUESTED BY...D  GILES
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20100723.501PA.01/AFG